The 10 Most Impactful Plays of Week 11

​Honorable Mentions

So what is NEP? By adding down-and-distance value to standard box score information, we can see just how much each play and each team as a whole influence the outcome of games. If a player passes for five yards on 3rd-and-2, it means more to the game than it does on 3rd-and-10, and those plays should be valued accordingly. For more info on NEP, check out our glossary.

Each play has an NEP value. Each play also changes the win probability (WP) of the game. I factored those values together to see which plays were the most impactful to the moment on the field and the game as a whole.

Below were some exciting moments from the week with big value swings in one category, but didn’t cut it in the other.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars defensive lineman Jared Odrick punches ball out of Detroit Lions wide receiver Golden Tate's arms; linebacker Telvin Smith recovers (WP: +23.40, NEP: +4.96).
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Lavonte David forces a fumble on Kansas City Chiefs’ last-second desperation hook-and-ladder (WP: +26.33, NEP: +4.98).
8. Washington Redskins wide receiver Jamison Crowder takes 53-yard air gain to Green Bay Packers’ one-yard line (WP: +17.52, NEP: +5.35).
7. Buffalo Bills cornerback Stephon Gilmore picks off Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton, then returns the ball to the Cincy three-yard line (WP: +15.71, NEP: +6.29).
6. Detroit tight end Eric Ebron rumbles along for 61 yards to the Jacksonville eight-yard line (WP: +31.19, NEP: +5.20).

Now onto the top-five plays of the week!