NFL

Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 13

Matt Blair  —  @grizzlyblair Dec 2nd, 2016
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Start Stephen Gostkowski

numberFire's Jim Sannes wrote a very useful article in January on how kickers performed based on measures such as Vegas spreads, implied totals, and favorites versus underdogs. Based on his findings, we need to target kickers on teams that are heavily favored, with implied team total as the tiebreaker.

In Week 13, Danny Woodhead (if you ask Jeff Fisher) and the New England Patriots are favored by 13 points against the Los Angeles Rams. We are targeting Pats kicker Stephen Gostkowski in this situation. Sannes found that kickers who were on teams favored to win by 10 or more points averaged 9.77 fantasy points per game.

The Patriots also have the second-highest implied total of the weekend with 29 points. Kickers on a team with an implied total between 27 and 29.75 averaged 8.64 fantasy points per game.

Gostkowski is $4,900 on FanDuel, ranking fourth among kickers. He is pricey but should return or even exceed his value. He is worth targeting in all formats.

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