5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 14
Denver Broncos Passing Offense
Hey, guess what? Weather sucks here, too. The current projections are for 10 mile-per-hour winds and light rain. As long as the wind speeds don't increase much and the rain doesn't intensify, you're going to want a piece of Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.
The Tennessee Titans currently rank 28th against the pass, and that includes a time earlier in the year in which they were flashing competence. That's not a word we should associate with their past seven games.
In that stretch, every quarterback to face them has thrown for at least 262 yards and 2 touchdowns. Four quarterbacks have at least 330 yards passing, and all of them have at least 18.7 FanDuel points. And these aren't your go-to world beaters who are thrashing them; Cody Kessler, Blake Bortles, and Matt Barkley all had at least 316 passing yards, and they combined for eight touchdowns and two interceptions. That's firmly not great, Bob.
This week, the Denver Broncos are expected to get quarterback Trevor Siemian back after he missed Week 13 with a foot injury. Siemian returned to practice Wednesday, likely providing a big lift to the passing offense.
Check out the difference in efficiency between Siemian and rookie Paxton Lynch this year. Lynch may have the first-round pedigree, but Siemian has been just dusting him on the field.
| Quarterback | Drop Backs | Passing NEP | Passing NEP per Drop Back | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 349 | 35.97 | 0.10 | 46.13% |
| Paxton Lynch | 92 | 1.55 | 0.02 | 44.57% |
Siemian's not a superstar by any means, but he has at least been a very passable NFL quarterback. That may be all his receivers need against this Titans secondary.
We'll start things off with a quick gush session over Sanders before getting into Thomas. If you'll remember from discussing the Bucs, Mike Evans leads the league with a 31.15% target market share, and the second-place guy is at 28.64%. That formerly-anonymous, second-place player? That's Sanders. And he's $5,900 on FanDuel.
Please attempt to control your bladder.
Obviously, a lot of that comes from earlier in the season when Sanders had back-to-back 13-target games. Still, Sanders has never had fewer than six targets in a game this season, and his target market share the past five games actually increases to 29.34%. His role is still meaty, and as long as the weather complies and Siemian plays, Sanders should be a lock for cash-game rosters.
Sanders is a baller, and he should likely have the majority of your exposure to this offense, even in tournaments. But Thomas is absolutely deserving of some love, too, even at a higher price.
From Week 6 on (seven games), Thomas has had fewer than 10 targets just once, and he had eight in the other game. His target market share over that span is 28.99%, which would rank second in the league if it were for the entire season.
Thomas hasn't flashed the yardage upside he used to have with at least 90 yards in just three games this year, but his floor is hard to duplicate at $6,900 (outside of Sanders, of course). Given the matchup, Thomas is somebody we can roll out either in cash or tournaments.
