5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 14
New York Giants Passing Offense
There are very few things less appealing in this world than using players in DFS who are facing the Dallas Cowboys. Their offense operates at such a slow pace that it saps upside from the opponents and robs them of ever-critical plays.
The one time where we can get the Cowboys out of that funk is when they're in a spot where they may have to throw. If they're either facing an elite rush defense or trailing, they may have to air things out, lowering their ability to slow things down.
The New York Giants have the league's fourth-best rush defense, per numberFire's metrics, and they've got an offense that -- when at home -- can take advantage of a lagging Cowboys defense and take a lead. That may be enough to warrant investment in Eli Manning and Odell Beckham.
Overall, the Cowboys' defense hasn't been outlierishly bad. They're 21st against the pass, which -- while not great -- isn't in a realm where we'd normally be licking our chops. However, as we talked about at the beginning, full-season numbers can be a bit misleading, especially when a team has lost an important piece. That's what we have with the Cowboys and cornerback Morris Claiborne.
Claiborne hasn't played since Week 8 with a groin issue, and he won't be able to play Week 14. When we split the Cowboys' season into two halves -- one with Claiborne and one without -- it should be obvious how important he has been to the secondary.
| Split | Drop Backs | Passing NEP | Passing NEP/P | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| With Claiborne | 286 | 45.51 | 0.16 | 49.65% |
| Without Claiborne | 217 | 64.80 | 0.30 | 54.84% |
For some context, Drew Brees has 0.28 Passing NEP per drop back this year with a 55.68% Success Rate. Quarterbacks facing the Cowboys have been Brees-esque from an efficiency standpoint ever since Claiborne went down. That's something we'd probably want to note.
The Giants are in a similar boat in that their season-long numbers don't properly reflect what we should expect Sunday. Their differences don't come from a game-changing injury; they come from cavernous home/road splits.
Here's a head-to-head comparison of how the Giants have performed in the two scenarios. Because games in London are so abnormal, that one was thrown out, leaving the Giants with a sample of six games at home and five on the road. It ain't pretty outside the Meadowlands, fam.
| Location | Points Per Game | Yards Per Game | Passing Yards Per Game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 23.5 | 381.8 | 298.5 |
| Road | 17.4 | 281.2 | 202.4 |
They average an additional touchdown, 100 yards, and 96 passing yards per game at home compared to on the road. While that does mean we should be frightened of them on the road, it also means their pricing will be inefficient in the positive sense at home. This is sneakily a really fun spot for these guys.
Manning is just $7,700 on FanDuel, meaning you'll get him at a decent discount from guys like Winston, Andrew Luck, and others. He hasn't been good this year from a fantasy perspective, hitting 20 points just three times, but the matchup and home splits here align to make him worth a roll of the dice.
Beckham's just $8,500 this week, his second-lowest price of the entire season and his first time below $9,000 since Week 9. He already has eight games with at least 10 targets, and two of his three multi-touchdown games have come at home. Pairing these two together will give you gobs of upside in a spot where people may be hesitant to invest.
