5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Passing Offense
Sheldon Rankins can't fix everything, y'all.
The Saints' rush defense has been beastly recently, but all it has done has turn the defense into one that funnels volume toward the pass. And when you're struggling as much as the Saints are in that arena, it can lead to tons of fantasy deliciousness.
The Saints enter Week 14 ranked 27th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, marking the second consecutive year in which they've been at least sniffing the bottom of the barrel. We've got a large sample of suckage here, and it's something we can buy into.
If you're looking at how quarterbacks have fared against New Orleans, you may not be inclined to plug Jameis Winston into your lineups. However, they've been the beneficiaries of a solid schedule recently. In eight games since their Week 5 bye, the Saints have faced just two teams ranked in the top 20 in Adjusted Passing NEP per play.
The Buccaneers -- thanks to some strong play by Winston -- are ninth in that stat, and they should be well equipped to exploit this still-struggling secondary.
We went more in-depth on Winston's surge earlier this week, but let's hone in on two separate splits for the second-year quarterback. His season seemed to turn around once the team had their bye in Week 6. Prior to that, he had been simply atrocious, even throwing four picks in a single game against the Arizona Cardinals.
Since then, though, he has been lighting the world aflame, as the table below shows.
| Time Frame | Drop Backs | Passing NEP | Passing NEP per Drop Back | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Bye | 219 | -2.24 | -0.01 | 46.12% |
| After Bye | 242 | 85.12 | 0.35 | 53.72% |
He was in the same realm as Blake Bortles and Case Keenum the first five games. If you draw his numbers over the past seven games out for the entire season, he'd rank third in the league behind Dak Prescott and Tom Brady. Winston still has his flaws, but he has been spewing Gucciness recently, enough to warrant investment despite the high ownership that will likely follow.
You likely don't need me to convince you to play Mike Evans. But I need an excuse to gush over him, so I'll ask you to indulge me just for a second.
No player in the entire league has a higher target market share than Evans at 31.15%. The next-best mark is all the way down at 28.64%, so this is a sizable gap we're looking at. He also has 29.09% of their red-zone targets, the fifth-highest mark in the league among wide receivers.
The Buccaneers have the highest implied team total on the slate, so there may not be a wide receiver available in better position to explode than Evans.
If you want to avoid the ownership Evans will carry, then you could do worse than Cameron Brate. The Saints aren't exceptionally awful against tight ends, but Brate does have at least five targets in five of the past six games. Although there are still concerns around his snap rate, Brate has played at least 60% of the snaps in each of the past five games.
It's not a great number, but it'll work if the goal is to differentiate from Winston's most popular stacking option.
