Week 15 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers

Over/Under: 51.0
Falcons Implied Team Total: 32.50
49ers Implied Team Total: 18.50

This game has the highest over/under on the slate, despite the San Francisco 49ers having one of the lowest implied team totals.

Well, to explain that, let's take a second to appreciate the 32.5-point implied team total Vegas has the Atlanta Falcons projected for. Not only is it one of the highest we have seen all season, but it also dwarfs every other total on the slate. The next-highest implied team total is a full touchdown lower (26.5) and Atlanta's Vegas spread (-14) is easily the largest.

So, how can we take advantage of the potential fantasy goodness?

Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

FanDuel Price: $8,500

Matt Ryan remained productive last week (21.5 FanDuel points) despite the absence of Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, so it should be no surprise that he is priced as the most expensive quarterback, given Atlanta's 32.5-point implied team total against a porous San Fran secondary.

The dude has been awesome this year, ranking second only to Tom Brady in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back (0.33). He should have no trouble finding success against the Niners, who rank eighth-worst in schedule-adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play and have allowed the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to opposing passers.

Ryan has more than his own awesomeness and a terrific matchup working in his favor, though. Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, Matty Ice has performed much better when in extreme positive game scripts such as this one. Since the beginning of 2013, Ryan has averaged 315 yards and 1.9 touchdowns in games with at least a 51-point over/under as opposed to 286 yards and 1.7 touchdowns in all others.

In games the Falcons won by at least 14 points (what they're favored by in this one) during that span, his numbers really start to get crazy. In such contests, Ryan has averaged a cool 317 yards and 2.6 touchdowns as opposed to 290 yards and 1.6 touchdowns in other games.

DeVonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

FanDuel Price: $6,400

After combining for 45.2 FanDuel points in the two previous games, Devonta Freeman was a major disappointment in Week 14, putting up just 2.8 FanDuel points in limited playing time in a blowout of the Los Angeles Rams. While it was certainly disappointing, let's not act as if this week is guaranteed to be a repeat performance just because the Falcons are heavy favorites.

A look at Freeman's time as a starter shows he hasn't been pampered by Atlanta if playing with a large lead. The Falcons were leading 42-0 in the third quarter last week, guys. It's fair to assume that was an outlier.

In games the Falcons have won by at least one score since he became the starter, Freeman has averaged 17.2 carries for 82 yards and 1.1 touchdowns as opposed to 15.2 carries for 57.6 yards and 0.4 touchdowns. Since Tevin Coleman had the better fantasy day, the narrative will be he is the one that will get "garbage time," but Freeman actually still out-snapped him, which has been a consistent trend, with him playing more snaps in every game the two have played together.

So, if we expect Freeman to get the majority of the running back snaps again, he should be in line for a monster fantasy performance against the Niners. San Francisco easily ranks dead last in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP, has allowed a league-worst 4.9 yards per carry, as well as 30 FanDuel points per game to opposing backs, which -- you guessed it -- is the worst in the league.

If he scores early as part of Atlanta getting out to a big lead, it wouldn't be surprising to see Freeman get more scoring opportunities as they run out the clock. As Raybon pointed out in his piece covering Vegas odds, "Winning teams rush for 35 more yards and double the touchdown output of losing teams, which equates to winners averaging roughly 6.5 more fantasy points per game. Favorites average a lower -- but still very significant -- figure of 2.8 more rushing fantasy points per game than underdogs."