Week 16 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

Oakland Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts

Over/Under: 53.0
Raiders Implied Team Total: 28.25
Colts Implied Team Total: 24.75

This matchup between the Oakland Raiders and Indianapolis Colts has a 53-point over/under, which is higher than any other on the slate. That should come as no surprise, considering both Oakland (third) and Indy (eighth) are in the top-10 in scoring, while also ranking as bottom-10 defenses. According to our metrics, Indy ranks fifth-worst in schedule-adjusted Defensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play, while Oakland ranks ninth-worst.

As a result, Oakland is projected for the second-most points (28.25) this weekend, while Indy is projected for the sixth-most (24.75). This game should be a fantasy goldmine, so let's take a look at some potential ways to attack it.

Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts

FanDuel Price: $8,300

Game script would suggest that Derek Carr is the better play of the two quarterbacks in this game, and a mega-Raiders stack with Carr, Latavius Murray, and an Oakland pass-catcher is certainly in play. However, with the way Carr has performed (8.5 FanDuel points per game) since injuring his finger, let's focus on Andrew Luck in an almost equally juicy spot.

Luck draws a matchup against a Raiders secondary that has performed better recently but still ranks 10th-worst in schedule-adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per drop back on the year. Luck will be just the sixth top-16 passer the Raiders have faced this season (according to Passing NEP), and the first five have averaged a 296-yard, 2.5-touchdown line against them.

Luck has also performed better when facing negative game scripts over the past two seasons, which is a bit uncommon for quarterbacks. However, when looking at his increase in volume when playing from behind, it makes a little more sense.

Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, in games the Colts have lost by four or more points over the past two seasons, Luck has seen his average pass attempts jump from 35.2 to 43.4 per game. He's averaged an identical 275.8 passing yards in such games, with a slight increase (0.3) in touchdowns per game when playing from behind.

In a shootout that Indy may find itself trailing in, Luck makes for a strong play against Oakland's suspect secondary. If you expect this game to be a shoot out, pairing him with one of the next two options makes a lot of sense from a game theory perspective, too.

Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders

FanDuel Price: $7,300

After averaging 19.9 FanDuel points on 21.4 touches per game over his past five, Murray disappointed last week against the San Diego Chargers. He was still effective, totaling 92 yards on 14 touches (6.6 yards per touch), but some fumbling issues and negative game script kept him from continuing his recent hot streak.

One concern is Carr's finger keeping him from taking snaps from under center and putting a damper on the offense as a whole over the last two games. However, Murray has been more effective on the ground when playing out of the gun, averaging 4.4 yards per attempt out of the shotgun as opposed to 4.1 under center this season.

He's also excelled in similar game scripts over the past two seasons. In 10 games that Oakland has won by at least four points during that span, Murray has averaged 16.7 carries for 77.5 rushing yards and 1.1 touchdowns, as opposed to 15.3 carries for 57.1 yards and 0.4 touchdowns in other games.

Those numbers make a lot of sense when you consider what Raybon pointed out in his piece covering Vegas odds, "Winning teams rush for 35 more yards and double the touchdown output of losing teams, which equates to winners averaging roughly 6.5 more fantasy points per game. Favorites average a lower -- but still very significant -- figure of 2.8 more rushing fantasy points per game than underdogs."

Michael Crabtree, WR, Oakland Raiders

FanDuel Price: $6,200

For whatever reason, Amari Cooper continues to get more love than Michael Crabtree, despite averaging fewer FanDuel points, targets, red zone targets, and catches and having half the touchdowns that Crabtree has. Whatever -- let's just continue to target Crabtree at lower price and ownership.

Crabtree has at least six targets in each of his past eight games, a stretch over which he has averaged 9.9 targets per game. In addition to having a more consistent role in the offense than Cooper, he also will likely spend less time matched up with Vontae Davis, who, despite a disappointing season, is still Indy's best corner. Regardless of who he's matched up against though, he should have no trouble against an Indianapolis secondary ranked 24th in schedule-adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per drop back.

Similar to Carr and Murray, Crabtree has performed noticeably better in positive game scripts over the past two seasons. When Oakland has won by four-plus points during that span, he has averaged 6.2 catches on 10.7 targets for 72.4 yards, as opposed to 5 catches on 8.3 targets for 53.2 yards in all other games.