The 10 Most Impactful Plays of Week 16

​Honorable Mentions

So what is NEP? By adding down-and-distance value to standard box score information, we can see just how much each play and each team as a whole influence the outcome of games. If a player passes for five yards on 3rd-and-2, it means more to the game than it does on 3rd-and-10, and those plays should be valued accordingly. For more info on NEP, check out our glossary.

Each play has a NEP value. Each play also changes the win probability (WP) of the game. I factored those values together to see which plays were the most impactful to the moment on the field and the game as a whole.

Below were some exciting moments from the week with big value swings in one category, but didn’t cut it in the other.

10. Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce snares an 80-yard touchdown catch (WP: +10.94, NEP: +6.81).
9. San Francisco 49ers cornerback Tramaine Brock picks off hapless Los Angeles Rams passer Jared Goff early in the first (WP: +11.92, NEP: +6.23).
8. With 1:25 left on the clock, Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor fires a seven-yard touchdown strike to tight end Charles Clay (WP: +44.59, NEP: +4.31).
7. Just four seconds after halftime, Baltimore Ravens linebacker Zach Orr intercepts Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (WP: +16.15, NEP: +4.95).
6. Ravens linebacker C.J. Mosley snares another Roethlisberger pass in the third quarter, returning it to the 11-yard line (WP: +13.43, NEP: +5.39).

Now onto the top-five plays of the week!