5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 17
Atlanta Falcons Passing Offense
The one positive about Week 17 is that we at least know which teams have something on the line. The Atlanta Falcons, for example, have 79.91% odds of a first-round bye, but that drops all the way to 17.75% if they lose against the New Orleans Saints. That would appear to be incentive to ball out against one of the league's worst pass defenses.
The Saints -- despite their improvements against the rush -- still rank 28th against the pass this year. The Falcons are easily the league's most efficient team on the offensive side, and Matt Ryan is the league's leader in Passing NEP per drop back. This is the prototype for mismatches.
New Orelans' notably wretched pass defense has been allowed to fly a bit under the radar of late thanks to the opponents they have faced. From Week 6 on (11 games), the Saints have faced a quarterback ranked better than 17th in Passing NEP per drop back just three times. In that same span, they faced a quarterback ranked 27th or worse five times. The highest-ranking guy they faced was Jameis Winston, whose offense allowed him to throw just 61 times in two games. Again, Ryan leads the entire league in this category. This is a whole new task for the Saints.
Ryan's price makes him tough to squeeze in at $8,700 on FanDuel, and if you're going to pay that much, you had better be getting gobs of upside. Is Ryan worth the lofty price?
In this matchup, he may be. He has exceeded 20 points on FanDuel just once in the past six games, but the Falcons blew out their opponents in four of those, and they faced a pair of top-three pass defenses in the other two. The Saints have the offense to keep pace, and they're most certainly are not a top-flight defensive unit. This is a good situation for Ryan, and his viability stretches into both cash games and tournaments this week.
It's a bit harder to figure out whom we want to stack with Ryan. Julio Jones would be the obvious choice, but with a lingering toe injury, he's not the safest apple in the bunch.
That said, there are reasons to like Jones this week. He came back in Week 16 to receive 7 of 33 targeted throws despite playing just 61.9% of the snaps. If he can crank out a few more snaps in a big game for the Falcons, we could see monster Julio unleash again at just $8,300, tying his lowest price of the season.
If you need to save some salary, though, don't overlook Mohamed Sanu. He led the Falcons in wide-receiver snaps at 71.4% in Week 16, and he's just $5,100. You likely won't need to spend down too much at wide receiver this week, but Sanu will allow you to do so when necessary.
