5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Rushing Offense

Playoffs aren't really a thing for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They would make the playoffs a whopping 0.00279% of the time, according to numberFire's algorithms, and it's entirely possible an event in the early games eliminates the Buccaneers before kickoff. That said, they're definitely not entering Sunday under the assumption they're resting starters, and that should be enough to get us interested in their offense.

The Buccaneers will be facing the Carolina Panthers in Week 17, a team not known for struggling against the rush. They're 10th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, so it's not as if we should be leaping to target them. That's a different story when linebacker Luke Kuechly is out, and that'll be the case again on Sunday.

Any time a team loses a piece as integral and talented as Kuechly, it's going to affect their defensive efficiency. The Panthers are no exception. This table shows how running backs have fared against the Panthers with and without Kuechly this year.

The Success Rate in games without Kuechly is still below average and below where we generally want to target, but the upside is absolutely tremendous here. This includes 106 yards and 2 touchdowns to Thomas Rawls and 143 yards on 24 combined carries for Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman in Week 16. This defense just isn't the same without Kuechly on the field.

Last week, it may have been tough to get too excited about the Bucs' backfield. They had Doug Martin, Charles Sims, and Jacquizz Rodgers all fighting for carries, limiting the floor and ceiling of everyone involved. We've gotten some unfortunate clarity recently, though, that makes Rodgers a player we can target.

On Wednesday afternoon, the Buccaneers placed Sims on injured reserve. Later in the day, Martin announced that he was entering a rehabilitation program after receiving a four-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. Martin's situation and long-term health are obviously more important, but it does open up a window of opportunity for Rodgers.

Rodgers enters Week 17 ranked 12th in Rushing NEP per carry and third in Success Rate of the 48 running backs with at least 80 carries. He already has a pair of 100-yard rushing games this year, and with the attrition in the Buccaneers' backfield, he should have another chance on Sunday.

At $5,200, Rodgers is the exact same price as the aforementioned Dion Lewis. Rodgers is absolutely the guy we want in cash with what will likely be a huge workload. He's also at home and favored, meaning he's not a hateful selection for tournies, either. Pairing the two together would give you gobs of salary to pay up at quarterback and wide receiver, and on a slate like this, that may not be the worst plan of attack.