Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 17

Start the Jets Defense Because of Line Movement

What is line movement? During the NFL season, bookmakers usually post a spread with a total as early as possible to begin taking bets.

For Week 17, these lines were posted as early as Sunday night and have since been adjusted. They are adjusted in the following hours and days due to transactions, injuries, weather reports, large bets on one side -- any number of things.

The New York Jets are 3.5-point home underdogs against the Buffalo Bills. The lines on this game changed significantly when E.J. Manuel was named the starter. The game opened at a relatively low total of 45 and has already dropped to 42 points.

Back in March, I wrote about how line movement affects defensive performances, and when the total was between 39 and 42 points in 2015, the defenses involved averaged 8.06 fantasy points per game. In that same year, defenses involved scored an average of 8.92 fantasy points per game if the total dropped 3-plus points throughout the week.

So why aren't we taking the Buffalo D/ST since they are favored? I hesitate to bet on a defense just days after losing their coach. They're also on the road for this relatively meaningless game and check in as the fifth-most expensive option on FanDuel.

The line has moved in the favor of the Jets. The game opened with the Bills being favored by 6 points, but has plummeted to just 3.5 points.

The New York Jets D/ST is priced at $4,100, just $100 above the FanDuel minimum, making them a cheap option for both cash games and tournaments.