Fantasy Football: Top 5 Busts of the 2016 Season
Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Todd Gurley was an instant hit in the NFL as a rookie surpassing 125 rushing yards in his first four starts on his way to 1,106 yards, 10 touchdowns and the Rookie of the Year award. There was no reason to think he couldn't sustain or even improve on those numbers this season.
Virtually every fantasy player was a believer. Gurley was a top-five overall pick in drafts on all the major websites, including ESPN, Yahoo, NFL.com, FOX and CBS. He was the first running back off the board in terms of average draft position on three of those sites.
His second year, though, saw a significant drop-off in production, and he played in three more games.
| Year | Games | Rushes | Rushing Yards | TDs | YPC | YPG | 100+ | Rec. | Rec. Yards | Rec. TDs | YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 13 | 229 | 1,106 | 10 | 4.8 | 85.1 | 5 | 21 | 188 | 0 | 14.5 |
| 2016 | 16 | 278 | 885 | 6 | 3.2 | 55.3 | 0 | 43 | 327 | 0 | 20.4 |
The two stats that really stand out are his yards per carry
(3.2, down from 4.8) and 100-yard rushing games (none, down from five). His season-high was 85 yards in
Week 3 and he had 10 games with fewer than 60 rushing yards. He didn't break
nearly as many tackles, but it's also safe to say
defenses keyed on him a lot more.
He finished as the 20th-best fantasy running back in standard leagues, ranking 70th overall. In point-per-reception (PPR) leagues, he was the16th back and 76th overall.
Not all the blame can be placed on Gurley, though.
The Los Angeles Rams switched from a zone run scheme last season, which seemed to cater to his strengths, to a power run game this season. This was the result of the team replacing offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti with Rob Boras, but head coach Jeff Fisher was also in favor of the power scheme.
In addition, the Rams cut way back on using speedy wideout Tavon Austin in the backfield, which took some of the focus off Gurley last season. Austin ran for 434 yards on 52 carries and 4 touchdowns last season, but had only 159 rushing yards on 28 carries and 1 score this season.
Two other issues were the Rams' offensive line and their offense as a whole, which gave Gurley fewer scoring chances. The team ranked last in offensive rating (124.93) and 30th in rushing according to numberFire's team power rankings.
Poor quarterback play was also a factor since the team ranked last in passing according to our metrics. Case Keenum started nine games and threw more interceptions (11) than touchdowns (9). Rookie Jared Goff replaced him and wasn't any better in seven games (5 touchdowns, 7 interceptions). The Rams ranked last in the NFL in yards per game (262.7) and points per game (14.0).
