5 Wide Receivers With Huge Increases in Production During the 2016 Season
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts
After a disappointing 2015, T.Y. Hilton came right back to post career highs in both receptions and yards, along with his best Reception NEP per target since being a rookie in 2012.
| Category | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Receptions | 50 | 82 | 82 | 69 | 91 |
| Reception NEP per Target (Rank) | 0.92 (T-6th) | 0.64 (T-25th) | 0.83 (T-13th) | 0.75 (T-17th) | 0.84 (T-4th) |
His resurgence was evident for two reasons. One is he's developed as a pass-catcher while becoming a favorite of quarterback Andrew Luck, but the other was Luck not having many other options due to injury, with Donte Moncrief only suiting up for nine games.
Let's also not forget that Luck himself was limited to just seven games in 2015 and ended up appearing in 15 this past year. That clearly made a huge difference as Hilton beat out Julio Jones by just 39 yards for the most receiving yards in the league (1,448).
When comparing Hilton to the three wideouts who finished below him in receiving yards, we can see that more targets and touchdowns certainly doesn't mean more yards gained -- the quarterback throwing the ball must be taken into account.
| Player | Targets | QB NEP/Target | Catch Rate | Yards | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 155 | 0.14 | 58.71% | 1,448 | 6 |
| Julio Jones | 129 | 0.37 | 64.34% | 1,409 | 6 |
| Odell Beckham | 169 | 0.12 | 59.76% | 1,367 | 10 |
| Mike Evans | 175 | 0.15 | 56.14% | 1,321 | 12 |
When comparing with the other wide receivers who were most similar in terms of targets and yardage, it shows how Jones produced at a high rate given far less targets than the others above, while Hilton was most similar to Beckham and Evans. Jones' success was a direct result of Matt Ryan being far superior than the field in terms of Quarterback NEP per target.
If Hilton can improve his catch rate from a year ago and positively regress to the league average of 60.83% as a bare minimum, he will continue to solidify his top-10 wide receiver and help the Indianapolis Colts push for a playoff spot in an AFC South division that is becoming increasingly more competitive.
