5 Reasons Why the Patriots Will Win Super Bowl LI
1. The Falcons' Defense Doesn't Measure Up
Both of these offenses are among the best in football, and we could call the teams relatively even there. But when it comes to defense, the Patriots hold a rather firm advantage.
We can illustrate this with the help of numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP), the metric we use to track the efficiency of both teams and players with the team metrics being adjusted for strength of opponent. A three-yard completion on 3rd and 2 is wildly different from a three-yard completion on 3rd and 4, and NEP helps quantify the discrepancies in those two results.
Here are the schedule-adjusted ranks for both the Patriots and Falcons this year on the defensive side of the ball. Neither team was dominant, but the Falcons struggled across the board.
| Team | Overall Rank | Against the Pass | Against the Rush |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 11th | 11th | 8th |
| Atlanta Falcons | 25th | 22nd | 31st |
Although the Patriots' defense isn't as good as their surface stats indicate, they're still leaps and bounds above Atlanta.
Both defenses have a tough task ahead in trying to stop tremendous offenses. One team is better equipped to combat that than the other, and this is where the Patriots' advantage shines through.
