The 10 Most Impactful Plays of Super Bowl LI
4. Pass Interference Gets the Patriots in Striking Distance
Win Probability Swing: +12.17% | Win Probability After: 93.15%
As you'll recall, White's game-winning touchdown was just a two-yard plunge. They might not have been there were it not for De'Vondre Campbell's ill-timed arm bar to Martellus Bennett's shoulder.
The Patriots had already moved the ball to the Atlanta 15-yard line, meaning their win odds were lofty at 80.99%. Brady dropped back, tried to hit Bennett right by the goalline, only to see the ball fall incomplete. Then the yellow hankie hit the turf.
Campbell had put his right arm up as the ball approached Bennett. However, he made contact with Bennett's right shoulder just before the ball arrived, justifying the flag. This brought the Patriots' win odds all the way up to 93.15% before White capped it off.
Obviously, had Campbell not interfered, there's a possibility Bennett would have caught it and ended the game right there. But, that likely won't make the pang of this win probability spike any less painful.