Which Quarterback From the 2017 Draft Class Is Statistically Superior?
2. Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech
Games Played: 30 | Passer Efficiency Rating: 157.0 | AY/A: 9.2
Top Statistical Comp: Steve McNair
If we were judging this based just on collegiate efficiency, then Patrick Mahomes would hold the top spot. He had the best AY/A in the class, and his passer efficiency rating was second by a hair. With the discrepancy between Kaaya and Mahomes in games played, though, Mahomes slides down to a respectable second.
Mahomes took big strides between his 2015 sophomore season and last year in limiting interceptions, something that helped vault him to the top of this list. He threw 15 picks as a sophomore, leading the Big 12, but he cut that to 10 this year despite adding 18 more total attempts. When you couple that with a gaudy 41 touchdowns, it's easy to see how his AY/A got so meaty.
This isn't to say he cowers over previous first-round picks, though. Going back to our group of 60 candidates, Mahomes ranks 26th in AY/A and 29th in passer efficiency rating. This is all while starting for just two-plus seasons, limiting him to 30 games played. Even the elite in this class bring some serious questions.
Whenever Mahomes' name is brought up this draft season, you can bet someone will make mention of his playing in the Big 12. This isn't a conference known for stellar defense, potentially tainting his efficiency stats. Looking back at how past Big 12 first-round picks have fared likely won't help his case.
Since 1995, there have been seven quarterbacks from the Big 12 drafted in the first round. Here's a look at how they've fared in the NFL through the eyes of NEP, again focusing on top-15 seasons in years in which they had at least 200 drop backs.
| Quarterback | School | Top-15 NEP Seasons | Qualified Seasons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | Baylor | 1 | 3 |
| Sam Bradford | Oklahoma | 1 | 6 |
| Vince Young | Texas | 1 | 3 |
| Brandon Weeden | Oklahoma State | 0 | 2 |
| Josh Freeman | Kansas State | 1 | 4 |
| Ryan Tannehill | Texas A&M | 1 | 5 |
| Blaine Gabbert | Missouri | 0 | 3 |
In 26 qualified seasons, former Big 12 quarterbacks have finished in the top 15 in Total NEP just five times. Sam Bradford didn't get his first top-15 finish until this year. You can bet Mahomes is going to hear about this, whether it's fair or not.
Perhaps it's fitting, then, that Mahomes' top comp is the late Steve McNair, who played his college ball at Alcorn State, which was -- at the time -- Division I-AA. His stats there weren't anything otherworldly, either, and he and Mahomes line up well across the board.
| Quarterback | Games | Pass. Eff. Rat. | AY/A |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 33 | 155.4 | 9.0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 30 | 157.0 | 9.2 |
McNair was a tremendous NFL player despite putting up just decent stats against lower-level competition in college; it's probably not right to write off Mahomes simply because he played in an offensive-minded conference.
Mahomes is similar to Kaaya in that he's not likely to cost a team a first-round pick. That makes any warts and worries he may present less frightening. He showed some reasons for excitement when he was at Texas Tech, and it would seem fully justifiable to target him at some point beyond the first round.
