Which Quarterback From the 2017 Draft Class Is Statistically Superior?
3. DeShaun Watson, Clemson
Games Played: 34 | Passer Efficiency Rating: 151.1 | AY/A: 8.0
Top Statistical Comp: E.J. Manuel
If it weren't for all of those gosh-darn interceptions, DeShaun Watson could be really freaking good. But, alas, here we are.
Watson is similar to Kaaya in a lot of ways. They both are around the experience levels we want -- and for Watson, it's high-leverage experience with two National Championship Game trips -- but depressed efficiency. Watson has the added bonus that scouts seem to hold him in higher regard, potentially stirring a bit of optimism for him as a pro.
Even though both Kaaya and Watson struggled a little with their efficiency, Kaaya was still a solid step ahead. You saw their marks against common opponents earlier, and here's their full-season stats for comparison.
| Quarterback | Games | Pass. Eff. Rat. | AY/A |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Kaaya | 38 | 150.3 | 8.9 |
| DeShaun Watson | 34 | 151.1 | 8.0 |
Throwing interceptions is a great way to sink your AY/A, and that was the efficiency stat that best predicted future success. That's the reason for the big split between these two.
Before you blame level of competition with Watson having to play in the College Football Playoff, remember that our comparison of Kaaya and Watson against common opponents also favored Kaaya. Add in four additional games of experience, and having Kaaya ahead of Watson would seem to be the way to go.
In reality, though, Watson doesn't need to compete with Kaaya. His true competition is likely Trubisky as they're the two quarterbacks most commonly found in the first round of mock drafts. So let's do the same thing and compare those two against common opponents. There were five overlap matches for the two, and Watson's fatal flaw shined through again.
| Quarterback | Attempts | Yards | Touchdowns | Interceptions | AY/A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Watson | 247 | 1,928 | 12 | 8 | 7.32 |
| Mitch Trubisky | 187 | 1,525 | 12 | 2 | 8.96 |
Watson threw at least one interception in each game; Trubisky only did so in one game, tossing a pair of picks against Virginia Tech while playing in remnants of Hurricane Matthew. This doesn't make up for the enormous gap in experience between the two, but it helps explain the skepticism around Watson despite his resume.
Although Watson's top comp is E.J. Manuel, that's a bit of an incomplete pairing. It's Watson's statistical profile as a passer that puts him with Manuel. Manuel was nowhere near the athlete that Watson was rushing the ball, and it's something that should serve Watson well at the next level. So while the two sit near each other in passing efficiency, we shouldn't simply assume that Watson will be a failure at the next level like Manuel has been thus far.
Perhaps a more apt comparison for Watson would be Jameis Winston. Watson played more games than Winston in college and had better efficiency stats, so they don't mesh well for this endeavor, but Winston was another guy who struggled with interceptions in college. Unfortunately, they've followed him to the NFL.
Over the past two seasons, 37 quarterbacks have at least 300 pass attempts. Only two (Peyton Manning and Ryan Fitzpatrick) have higher interception rates than Winston's 2.99% clip. Winston has still managed to be a top-15 passer in Total NEP each of his first two years, but it doesn't inspire hope that Watson will simply brush aside his propensity for picks in the pros.
With Kaaya and Mahomes, teams will probably have the luxury of acquiring them later in the draft. That might not be the case with Watson. There are enough reasons to like him if he winds up falling, but as a potential top-15 pick, there may be too many statistical red flags to buy into the upside.
