The NFL's 5 Best Deep-Ball Quarterbacks From 2016
3. Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders
Passing NEP per Attempt: 0.94 | Success Rate: 51.65%
You want to go from a solid starter to an MVP candidate? Beef up your ability on deep passes. That's what helped vault Derek Carr up lists across the board this year.
This isn't to say Carr was bad on deep passes in 2015 or anything. But check out his numbers the past two seasons on balls at least 16 yards downfield, and it'll become clear where he made his biggest strides.
Carr on Deep Passes | Attempts | Passing NEP per Attempt | Success Rate |
---|---|---|---|
2016 | 91 | 0.94 | 51.65% |
2015 | 106 | 0.68 | 47.17% |
The decrease in attempts is partly due to Carr's season-ending injury, but he also didn't have a chuck-and-pray type mentality overall. His 16.28% deep rate ranked 19th out of 33 players with at least 200 overall attempts and was a solid step down from his mark of 18.50% in 2015. However, like Bradford, Carr was effective when he went this route.
In addition to ranking third in Passing NEP per Attempt, Carr was third in Success Rate at 51.65%. This was a big part of what helped Carr finish the season ninth overall in Passing NEP per drop back -- on all passes -- just a year after finishing 25th in the same category.
Amari Cooper was a tremendously frustrating fantasy asset due to his lack of consistency, but he was a major boon for Carr on deep passes. Here are Carr's metrics when targeting both Cooper and Michael Crabtree down the field, a spot where Cooper held a sizable advantage.
On Deep Passes | Targets | Passing NEP per Attempt | Success Rate |
---|---|---|---|
Amari Cooper | 26 | 1.62 | 69.23% |
Michael Crabtree | 28 | 0.84 | 46.43% |
Cooper added almost twice as many points per deep attempt as Crabtree with a significantly better Success Rate. Cooper has some serious flaws, but he and Carr should form a solid deep-threat tandem for the foreseeable future.