2017 NFL Power Rankings: Preseason Edition

12. Kansas City Chiefs, 1.73 nERD

The Kansas City Chiefs can be a strong team, but they will inevitably have some quarterback controversy if Alex Smith struggles, as they traded up to select Patrick Mahomes 10th overall in the draft.

Smith has hovered around the league-average passing efficiency by our metrics for the past three seasons, yet this team just needs a little more to get over the hump. The offense has ranked 2nd in rushing efficiency in each of the past two seasons, but through the air they were 19th in 2015 and 18th in 2016.

The pass defense graded out 4th overall in 2016, and the defense (10th overall as a unit) looks to be the strong point again for Kansas City in 2017.

The team ranked 7th in nERD (5.41) in 2015 when they finished 11-5, but their 12-4 showing in 2016 came with a 1.93 nERD (9th) and a point differential 40 points off their 2015 pace (118 to 78). Against the toughest schedule in the league, Kansas City looks likely to take a step back record-wise this year.