Fantasy Football: One Breakout Candidate From Every NFL Team
Willie Snead, WR, New Orleans Saints
Willie Snead has been a reliable WR3 in fantasy up to this point in his career, finishing as WR34 (2015) and WR32 (2016) in the previous two seasons.
But with the departure of Brandin Cooks, Snead could reach a new level this year.
Cooks garnered 117 and 129 targets over the last two seasons, so there's a lot of volume up for grabs in a Drew Brees offense -- yes, please.
I wrote about Snead back in May, and although he isn't the screaming value he was back then -- his ADP is movin' on up -- it still rings true. Here's a snippet:
Snead has posted catch rates of 68.3% (2015) and 69.2% (2016) so far in his career, so we can feel pretty good about his ability to turn any extra volume into useable production. He also checks out well according to NEP. Per wideouts to see at least 80 targets in 2016, Snead was 12th in Reception NEP per target, and he ranked 25th in that group in 2015.
Snead finished with 69 grabs, 984 yards and 3 scores last season, so a slight bump in volume could push him over the 1,000-yard mark. In 2016, only two 1,000-yard receivers -- Kenny Britt and DeSean Jackson -- finished outside the top 23 PPR wideouts. Britt was on a horrific offense, something Snead won’t have to deal with, and DJax’s boom-or-bust style dings his production a bit in PPR formats.
The beautiful thing about Snead’s situation is we don’t need to get all fancy or work up a sweat trying to project things. There isn’t a need to say “If Snead sees X more targets, he can be a top-24 wideout.”
Over the last two seasons, Snead has proven he’s a solid, trustworthy WR3, and his offense -- quarterbacked by a Hall of Famer -- just lost the guy who has led them in targets over the past two years. That gives Snead upside he hasn't had to this point in his career.
It's as simple as that last line -- Snead has upside he hasn't had to this point in his career. While his ADP has risen almost five full rounds since May, he still has a chance to provide value at his current cost.
