Fantasy Football: One Overvalued Player From Each Team
Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Positional ADP: WR29 | Projected Finish: WR40
Stop me if you've heard this one before: "This is the year Donte Moncrief breaks out!" I won't deny that the athletic marvel is an intriguing player who could put up big numbers with Andrew Luck. But I'm still fading.
The first problem is that Luck and Moncrief have to be on the field at the same time. Last year Moncrief missed seven games and Luck missed one. The year before that, Luck missed nine games. As things stand right now, Luck's status for Week 1 is up in the air. Even if he starts the season, he's likely to miss training camp and preseason time, which could have repercussions in the regular season.
The second problem is that Moncrief is due for some regression in the scoring department. Moncrief scored at least two more touchdowns than expected last year, based on the research of our own Brandon Gdula. If he comes back to earth in 2017, that hurts his outlook considerably.
The third problem is that the Indianapolis Colts signed Kamar Aiken. He lacks Moncrief's notoriety, but he compares very favorably. Both have seen significant playing time in three seasons; here are their single-season career averages.
| Player | Rec | Targets | Reception NEP/Target | Catch Rate | Reception Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moncrief | 42.0 | 70.0 | 0.71 | 59.9% | 83.6% |
| Aiken | 42.3 | 69.7 | 0.68 | 63.2% | 85.6% |
There's a good chance that Aiken takes a bite out of Moncrief's opportunity. Add these three reasons together, and I'm staying away from Moncrief at this price.
Instead Try
Larry Fitzgerald and Jamison Crowder are both project to outscore Moncrief. We see Fitzgerald as the WR20, and Crowder as the WR33. Both have good quarterbacks and play in good offenses, and they make for better picks than Moncrief at this point in your drafts.
