Fantasy Football: One Overvalued Player From Each Team
Tavon Austin, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Positional ADP: WR73 | Projected Finish: WR56
We project Tavon Austin to outperform his ADP, but he's still a fade. Despite the Los Angeles Rams' coaching change, Austin is unlikely to thrive in 2017.
He was only WR56 in standard scoring leagues last year despite a career-best 106 targets. He's unlikely to get that many targets this year, since the Rams brought in free agent Robert Woods and drafted wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Josh Reynolds, along with tight end Gerald Everett.
Woods is a real threat to Austin's workload. Looking at receiving NEP and Success Rate -- the percentage of receptions which positively impact NEP -- all four of Woods' seasons rank ahead of Austin's four campaigns.
| Year | Name | Targets | Reception NEP | Reception Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Robert Woods | 104 | 58.5 | 72.3% |
| 2016 | Robert Woods | 76 | 51.9 | 80.4% |
| 2013 | Robert Woods | 85 | 47.3 | 90.0% |
| 2015 | Robert Woods | 80 | 46.3 | 87.2% |
| 2013 | Tavon Austin | 69 | 30.7 | 70.0% |
| 2016 | Tavon Austin | 106 | 28.5 | 65.5% |
| 2015 | Tavon Austin | 87 | 26.4 | 65.4% |
| 2014 | Tavon Austin | 45 | 17.1 | 75.0% |
Sean McVay also likes to feature his tight ends, and the league average depth of a tight end target in 2016 was 6.8 yards. Austin's average depth of target? 6.9 yards. Insofar as Everett and Tyler Higbee are good, they could eat into Austin's work, too.
What about the rumors that Austin will be the team's new deep threat? As our Joe Redemann says, "Sorry, bro." And we haven't even touched on top-10 rookie Kupp, Reynolds, or how bad Jared Goff was last season (last in Passing NEP per drop back among passers with at least 100 drop backs).
Instead Try
At a similar ADP, try Woods. As we saw above, he's the team's best non-rookie wideout, and unlike Austin, Woods got paid by the new regime, not the old one. You might also try Kenny Stills, Tyler Lockett, or Will Fuller. All three are capable of the occasional big game, and none are facing new competition for targets.
