10 Fantasy Football Bust Candidates in 2017

Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

The thing about Leonard Fournette, Ajayi, and Howard is that -- unless they get hurt -- they're going to lead their respective teams in carries in 2017. They don't have competition to that extent. With receiving? Sure, but not with rushing.

And that makes the "bust" tag more likely in the sense that they don't consistently perform like their ADP suggests they should.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have ranked 32nd, 26th, and 24th in Adjusted Passing NEP per play since 2014 (when Blake Bortles became the primary starter). They were also 31st in 2011 and 2012 and 32nd in 2013, for what that's worth.

You might be thinking it's weird that I'm talking about their passing efficiency rather than their rushing efficiency, but just 28 of the 128 running backs who finished as top-16 performers since 2009 have played on teams that ranked 24th or worse in passing efficiency according to our metrics.

Fournette's ADP puts him as the RB11 this season. Just 18 of the 96 top-12 PPR backs since 2009 were on teams that ranked 24th or worse in Adjusted Passing NEP per play.

Only 8 of the 58 backs who finished RB16 or better and played on a team that ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in Adjusted Passing NEP per play since 2009 caught fewer than 30 passes. We project Fournette for just above that at 32 (and ESPN's Mike Clay has him for 31, for what it's worth). Just 13 backs have fit the criteria here with 35 or fewer catches.

In all, just four running backs finished as the RB16 or better on a team 24th or worse in passing efficiency by our metrics since 2009 and caught fewer than 30 passes. Unless Fournette exceeds expectation with his receiving total or the Jaguars take a significant step forward in the passing department, he's going to have a hard time paying off such a steep asking price. The workload will be there, but the touchdowns and production is fair to question in this offense, especially now that Branden Albert retired.