Fantasy Football: 6 Takeaways From Preseason Week 1

Thomas Rawls Isn't Dead Yet

There be a whole lotta mouths to feed in the Seattle Seahawks' backfield. And with Russell Wilson as the quarterback, whoever winds up snagging the top job is going to have fantasy value. While the ADP data is heavily in Eddie Lacy's corner, it seems like things are shifting steadily toward Thomas Rawls.

There are a couple of takeaways from these snap counts, so let's sort through all of them quickly.

First, Rawls is a screaming bargain as a guy going at the tail end of the ninth round. He has worked ahead of Lacy in practice, too, so we shouldn't be overly shocked.

Second, even if Rawls is the top guy, this is still a muddy situation. Lacy worked in with the first team, as did C.J. Prosise and Marcel Reece. There's not going to be a "bell-cow" back in this offense no matter what, and we should be handling them as such in our drafts.

This is a major win for Rawls, and again, his ADP should be much higher. But there's still some cause for hesitation.

A big part of that hesitation can come from how Rawls performed last year. Rawls increased the team's Net Expected Points (NEP) for the drive on just 26.61% of his carries. NEP is the metric we use to track the efficiency of teams and players, illustrating the difference between a two-yard carry on 3rd and 1 and that same two-yard gain on 3rd and 3. This 26.61% Success Rate for Rawls ranked 53rd out of 54 running backs at least 80 carries, so there's a reason they brought in Lacy over the offseason.

Lacy is coming off of ankle surgery last year, so it's possible he's still ramping things up. That's another reason to be at least slightly cautious when investing in Rawls.

Even with that in mind, there's no reason Rawls should be going as late as he is, and Lacy probably needs to start sliding down draft boards. The data we currently have indicates that Rawls is the back to own here even if the situation is still very much in flux.