30 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions for the 2017 Season

Pierre Garcon Will Top 160 Targets

Why This Is Bold: Getting 160 or more targets from a wide receiver being drafted in the middle rounds is borderline insane.

Why This Will Happen: I'm not a believer in the "Kyle Shanahan's top receiver gets fed" narrative. Most of the examples people point to include players who had zero competition when they saw a ton of targets under Shanny. That includes Pierre Garcon, who saw 181 targets in 2013 when Shanny was coaching in Washington. The dude's top competition was an aged Santana Moss.

So why say Garcon will hit 160 targets this year with Shanahan? Because, uh, well, he doesn't have any real competition in San Francisco this season, either.

We're not entirely sure what the 49ers offense will look like or how pass-friendly it'll be. What we do know, though, is that San Francisco should struggle this year (they've got an over/under win total of just 4.5), which will create negative game scripts. And that could generate some passing.

This is going to be somewhat subjective because any target projection is, but given the competition, a 25% market share for Garcon is easily in reach. Like, very easily. And he's hit that mark twice already in his career.

To reach the 160 targets, at a 25% market share, the 49ers would have to throw the ball 640 times. That's pretty unlikely. But 580 times? That's a number nearly half of the league hit last year.

At 580 attempts, Garcon would need a 27.59% market share to get to 160 targets. That's still lower than what he saw in Washington. And given the lack of competition, it's very attainable.