30 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions for the 2017 Season
Willie Snead Will Finish With More Receptions Than Jarvis Landry
Why This Is Bold: Jarvis Landry has 288 receptions over the last three years, which is the fifth-most in football. Willie Snead has averaged 70.5 receptions per season over the last two campaigns. That prorates to 211.5 across three seasons, or 76.5 fewer than Landry's three-year pace.
Why This Will Happen: Landry finished 2016 with 94 receptions, but post-Jay Ajayi breakout, accumulating those catches wasn't a cakewalk. From Weeks 1 through 5, Landry averaged 6.80 receptions per game, which paced him to nearly 109 catches for the year. After Ajayi's Week 6 breakthrough game, Landry's catches per contest fell to 5.45. And he caught 4 or fewer passes in 5 of his final 11 games.
A big, big reason for that was because Miami became more run-heavy. Through Week 5 of last year, Miami was the eighth-most pass-friendly team in the NFL. After Week 5, they were the third-most run-friendly team. That changed Landry's volume, as he averaged over two fewer targets per game in the new split.
Meanwhile, Snead could and should be in store for more looks this year with Brandin Cooks now in New England. Instead of dealing with Cooks for targets, he's dealing with Ted Ginn Jr..
The biggest question surrounding Snead, though, is whether or not he'll be on the field for New Orleans when they trot out two-wide receiver sets. During the first preseason game, he wasn't in on any of them. That could sort of be limiting for the slot receiver, but it should be noted that New Orleans ran three-wide sets at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL last year. Head coach Sean Payton's also known for rotating his skill players in and out of games -- Cooks was first on the team in wide receiver snap rate last year, but he ranked 33rd in the NFL. And, for the record, Snead tallied just 13 fewer targets.
In all, if Landry continues at his second-half reception pace, he could see between 80-90 catches this year. At Snead's career 68.78% (almost nice) catch rate, he'll need 124 targets to hit the 85-reception mark. That's totally doable when projecting his ceiling.
