Fantasy Football: 5 Teams With Major Offensive-Line Concerns Entering 2017
Indianapolis Colts
If it's football season, we're probably going to be talking about the Indianapolis Colts' offensive line. Said talk is usually far from flattering, and things turned south for them this week.
The team attempted to address its line in the 2016 draft by selecting center Ryan Kelly with the 18th overall pick. And it certainly worked with Kelly starting all 16 games at one of the line's most important positions. But Kelly's shot at duplicating that full slate of games is already down the tubes.
Colts C Ryan Kelly scheduled to undergo surgery on a bone defect in his foot Friday that is expected to sideline him 6-8 weeks, per source.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) August 17, 2017
The timeline of six to eight weeks is frightening enough, but the team could place Kelly on injured reserve with a designation to return, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com.
In 2016, the Colts ranked fourth in Success Rate on runs up the middle, according to numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric. NEP shows us the expected points generated on each play throughout the year, and Success Rate is the percentage of plays that result in an increase in those expected points. This helps us quantify the difference between a two-yard rush on 3rd and 1 and that same two-yard rush on 3rd and 3.
Conversely, the Colts were 15th in Success Rate on rushes to the left and 22nd when going right. This is a killer for Frank Gore, currently a seventh-round pick.
Kelly's pass-blocking abilities will be missed, as well, for an offense already dealing with questions around the health of quarterback Andrew Luck. It's just not a good time to be a member of the Colts' offense.
The biggest losers here will be those assets that are most dependent on touchdowns. This clearly includes Gore, but Donte Moncrief and Jack Doyle should be trending down, as well. T.Y. Hilton can generate upside via yardage, meaning the impact is lower on him, but everyone in this offense has the potential to feel the wrath of Kelly's absence up front.
