Fantasy Football: 4 Takeaways From Julian Edelman's Season-Ending Injury
3. Don't Go Overboard on Chris Hogan
Once Edelman went down, the effect on Cooks' draft stock was fairly obvious. Things are a bit different for Hogan. Even though he does get a boost with Edelman out, we should still proceed with caution.
With Edelman healthy last year, Hogan managed to play at least 75% of the snaps in 11 of 15 games, and one of the games he missed that threshold was due to injury. Even with that, his target market share in the 14 healthy games was 11.58%. Some of those were bombs that led to quick points, but you can't trust that mark in season-long leagues.
Yes, that number would likely go up with Edelman gone. But you also have to account for the addition of Cooks and a healthy Gronkowski. It's hard to see Hogan suddenly becoming a target monster within the offense, even after his beastly performance in Week 3 of the preseason.
All of this would change if Hogan were to step into Edelman's role as the underneath receiver within the offense. But that seems to be a dangerous assumption. Ben Volin of the Boston Globe already said over the weekend that Hogan is not seen as an obvious replacement for Edelman, and that absolutely makes sense. Hogan's strength is as a deep-ball receiver, a role that Cooks and Gronkowski already figure to fill. Just look at the percentage of each player's targets that were at least 16 yards downfield last year.
| In 2016 | Percentage of Targets 16+ Yards Downfield |
|---|---|
| Chris Hogan | 39.66% |
| Rob Gronkowski | 36.84% |
| Brandin Cooks | 30.77% |
| Julian Edelman | 19.50% |
Based on this, it would seem as if Cooks is the player best-equipped to soak up the shorter targets, another potential reason to believe that his floor is rising. It also paints a grim outlook for Hogan, given the other deep options the team has in place.
Hogan is absolutely draftable and currently costs a ninth-round pick, according to Fantasy Football Calculator. That should continue to rise, and he may be worth that increased cost. Just be wary of investing too heavily due to the ambiguity around his role.
