4 Fantasy Football Splits That Matter for Week 1

Lamar Miller's Production Without Duane Brown

There's no denying that volume is the key to consistent fantasy production, especially at running back.

But despite handling the sixth-most carries (268) of any back in 2016, Lamar Miller posted a below-average -0.08 Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per attempt. However, there's also no denying the volume that could be funneled to him since Alfred Blue isn't expected to suit up this weekend, leaving rookie D'Onta Foreman as the lone backup.

Having said that, there are clear red flags that need to be discussed, and let's start with the Jacksonville Jaguars defense, which isn't too shabby.

They quietly limited opposing rushers to just 3.8 yards per attempt (YPA) last year, which includes holding Jerick McKinnon, DeMarco Murray, Frank Gore, and Miller to a combined 198 yards on 66 carries (3.0 YPA) over their final four regular season games.

And this was before Jacksonville locked up defensive lineman Calais Campbell to a four-year, $60 million dollar deal this past offseason, who Pro Football Focus has graded as either "high quality" or "elite" over the past six seasons. Even if this deal didn't happen, the looming absence of premiere left tackle Duane Brown (holdout) for the Houston Texans certainly makes the chances of a successful outing for Miller much more difficult to achieve.

Brown was sidelined for the first four weeks of the 2016 season. During that time, Miller rushed for 351 yards on 93 attempts, giving him averages of 3.7 yards per attempt and 10.7 fantasy points per contest. If we exclude Week 5 -- when Miller left early with a shoulder strain -- he averaged 12.7 fantasy points and 4.2 yards per attempt in the nine games Brown was blocking for him.

Those aren't drastic splits, but his ceiling was much higher with Brown on the offensive line -- each of his top-five performances from last season happened in Week 6 or later.