3 Bold NFL Predictions for Week 1
The Jets Will Win at Buffalo
Why This Is Bold: The New York Jets are nine-point underdogs to the Buffalo Bills, and reasonably so. The Jets are not a good football team.
Why This Will Happen: Josh McCown is a competent NFL quarterback.
Over the past four seasons, he’s averaged 0.08 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back. That’s not outstanding: it would have ranked him 24th out of 34 quarterbacks with at least 200 drop backs in 2016.
But the league average rate for quarterbacks in that span is 0.09, and it’s better than anything the Jets had in 2016. Ryan Fitzpatrick was their most efficient quarterback with -0.01 Passing NEP per drop back. As a whole, the team ranked 30th in opponent adjusted Passing NEP per play in 2016.
McCown has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career, but he’ll probably make it through Week 1.
Meanwhile, Tyrod Taylor is fresh out of the NFL's concussion protocol. His new top receiver, Jordan Matthews, has barely practiced with the team after suffering a chipped sternum shortly after the Bills acquired him. Taylor and Matthews (and the rest of the Bills) must adjust to Rick Dennison’s new offense, one that may not suit Taylor’s skill set. That’s not a recipe for success.
The Bills and Jets are running neck-and-neck for the least promising team of 2017. This game is closer to a coin toss than the current spread implies.
