Fantasy Football Week 1 Market Share Report: Ty Montgomery Is a Workhorse
Receiving Market Shares
1. Randall Cobb Springs Back to Life
Last year was seemingly not a fun one for Randall Cobb. He averaged just 46.9 receiving yards per game, the lowest since his rookie season, and slipped below Davante Adams in the pecking order. With a full offseason to get healthy, it was fair to expect a rebound in 2017. Cobb made good on those thoughts in Week 1.
Cobb easily led the Packers in targets, turning his 13 into 9 receptions for 85 yards. Jordy Nelson had eight targets, and Adams finished third with seven. All three receivers played at least 77% of the offensive snaps.
This is a big boon for Cobb, and it definitely increases his weekly floor and ceiling. It still doesn't eliminate Adams from the equation, though.
Not only did Adams outsnap Cobb, 67-63, but he had four targets that were at least 16 yards downfield. Cobb had none, and Nelson was the only other Packer to get any such targets with his two. Those deep targets from Aaron Rodgers can pack plenty of punch, and it means Adams could flirt with some big games if he keeps getting action in that part of the field.
Cobb's emergence doesn't kill the fantasy stock of anybody in this offense. That's impossible when Rodgers is the one slinging it. It just means things may be a bit harder to predict.
Cobb -- due to his role underneath and price tag of $6,300 on FanDuel in Week 2 -- could be in play for cash games. But Adams and Nelson will still have tournament appeal, even in a game in which they will see snaps against Desmond Trufant. This group of receivers will be more of a headache than usual, but at least they'll bring some upside to compensate.
2. Cooper Kupp Gets High-Leverage Looks
Cooper Kupp finished his NFL debut with the Los Angeles Rams with six targets, accounting for 20% of the team's total looks. Normally, that's not going to be noteworthy enough for inclusion here. But where he got those looks most definitely is.
With Sammy Watkins in town, Kupp didn't figure to be a major factor deep down the field. He was on Sunday, though, racking up three targets that were at least 16 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Kupp caught all three, turning them into 70 yards and a touchdown. That touchdown came on Jared Goff's lone red-zone attempt of the game, only amping up the value in the looks that Kupp did get.
Kupp finished second on the team in snaps behind Robert Woods, was tied for the team lead in targets, and led the team both in deep targets and red-zone targets. If that's not noteworthy, then I don't know what is.
At the end of the day, the Rams are still a team that will likely want to run the football, and Goff has yet to prove himself beyond shredding a Vontae Davis-less Indianapolis Colts defense. But Kupp's clearly going to have a role, and his stock is quickly on the rise.
3. Paul Richardson Picks Up Where He Left Off
Paul Richardson jumped on the scene out of necessity last year, becoming a factor only once the Seahawks had lost both C.J. Prosise and Tyler Lockett for the season. They're healthy now, though, and Richardson still managed to make noise in Week 1.
Richardson finished the team's game against the Packers tied with Jimmy Graham for the lead in targets with seven (25.93% market share). He was just two snaps behind Doug Baldwin for the team lead there, and he had easily eclipsed Lockett in that department, 41-26.
As was the case with Kupp, a bunch of these targets for Richardson were high-leverage looks. Of Russell Wilson's seven throws at least 16 yards downfield, three went to Richardson. No other receiver had more than one. Richardson added a red-zone target to boot.
If the Seahawks' running game continues to struggle (which is a legit possibility behind their offensive line), then they should be able to support multiple fantasy-viable wide receivers. Richardson seems to be the leading candidate to fill that number-two role ahead of Lockett. Richardson's a player we want to buy before the box score reflects the quality of the targets he's getting.
4. Corey Davis Starts Strongly
The last time we saw Corey Davis on a football field, he was beating up on the Wisconsin Badgers in the Cotton Bowl. An injury forced him to sit out the combine, and a hamstring pull took him out for the preseason. His return between the hashes on Sunday was mighty impressive.
Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota had 40 targeted throws in Week 1. A full quarter of those went to Davis, who turned them into 6 receptions for 69 yards. Delanie Walker, Rishard Matthews, and Eric Decker all had at least eight targets, as well, but seeing Davis at the top of the leaderboards was a bit of a surprise.
This performance for Davis came even without a full compliment of snaps. He played just 42 snaps in his debut, trailing both Decker (60) and Matthews (53). Given the amount of time Davis had missed in the preseason, a reduced snap count was to be expected. But any jump up in that number could lead to even more impressive usage for the rookie.
If Davis can continue to get looks from Mariota, who was an efficient passer last year, he's going to have fantasy value. The problem is more about his schedule than anything else. The next three games are against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Seattle Seahawks, and Houston Texans, all of whom have tremendous secondaries. It's possible we won't see the full effects of Davis' breakout right away.
This means we have a bit of a window for buying on Davis. His price on FanDuel is $5,700 in Week 2, and you could maybe get behind that despite the matchup. However, it's possible his price will still be low entering a Week 5 matchup with the Miami Dolphins. If it is, and he's able to keep a decent role in the offense, that may be the best time to start investing. It also makes him a great asset to buy in season-long before the schedule starts to lighten up.
