Week 3 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons

Over/Under: 49.0
Lions Implied Team Total: 23.00
Falcons Implied Team Total: 26.00

You don't need me to tell you to load up on the Washington Redskins-Oakland Raiders game. On a fairly ugly slate with just one game possessing an over/under above 50 points, a quick look at our DFS Matchup Heat Map is enough to make their 54-point over/under jump off the page.

Instead, let's focus on some of the game scripts that are potentially sneakier sources of fantasy goodness. We'll start with the game with the second-highest over/under, a potential shootout between the Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons.

Theo Riddick, RB, Detroit Lions

FanDuel Price: $5,600

Theo Riddick hasn't done much through two games, as Detroit's impressive 2-0 start hasn't required them to call on their pass-catching specialist much. A matchup against the high-octane offense of the Falcons may be enough to force them to pass, though. In fact, no team has seen more pass plays against them this season than Atlanta, whose opponents have dropped back 48.5 times per game.

According to the RotoViz game splits app, Matthew Stafford has attempted at least 40 passes in 10 of Riddick's 28 games since 2015. In those games, he has averaged 7.6 targets. In 12 games the Lions have lost by at least three points (the amount Atlanta is favored by) during that time? Also 7.6 targets.

Oh yeah, and the Falcons basically beg opponents to target their running backs. Their strong cornerback group funnels targets to the middle of the field, and as a result, no team allowed more targets, catches, receiving yards, or touchdowns to opposing backs last season. Through two games this season, opposing backs have caught 18 of 26 targets for 143 yards and 2 touchdowns. That's great news for Riddick, who led the team in red zone targets per game in 2016.

If Detroit indeed does find themselves trailing in this game, Riddick is a lock for increased volume. At his discounted price tag, he is an excellent high-floor, salary-saving play.

Eric Ebron, TE, Detroit Lions

FanDuel Price: $5,200

Eric Ebron was limited in Week 1 due to the breakout performance of Kenny Golladay. However, with Detroit facing a New York Giants defense with a tough secondary and a scheme that leaves far more open space in the middle of the field than on the sidelines, Ebron out-produced the rookie in every facet in Week 2. Golladay played just 53% of the snaps and caught 1 of 3 targets for 8 yards, while Ebron caught all 5 of his targets for 42 yards and the team's lone red zone score.

It is important we focus on Ebron compared to Golladay last week, because Detroit finds themselves in a very similar situation from a matchup perspective. As mentioned with Riddick, Atlanta's weakness is covering the middle of the field, leaving room for backs, tight ends, and slot receivers to thrive. Atlanta allowed the sixth-most targets to tight ends (8.6 per game) last season and their opponents have thrown to their tight ends 12 times per game in 2017.

While Ebron's five targets might not jump off the page, it was actually a 23.8% target market share, as Stafford only threw the ball 21 times as part of a conservative plan in a game they were leading handily. With Stafford certain to increase his volume, Ebron's targets are all but sure to go up. He is a strong value play in any format.

Others to Consider

While Riddick, Ebron, and Golden Tate ($7,400) stand out as solid value plays, it is tough to know exactly how much exposure to get to the Atlanta side of the ball. The prices of players such as Matt Ryan ($8,500), Devonta Freeman ($8,200), and Julio Jones ($9,300) seem a bit inflated to match Atlanta's high implied team total. Given how well Detroit's defense has played thus far -- or maybe how old Carson Palmer and Eli Manning have looked against them -- it is tough to pencil in such high-priced players as core plays.

Also, all three of Atlanta's core options have performed better at home traditionally. However, it is worth noting that in projected shootouts, Ryan and Freeman have played much better. In games with an over/under of at least 49 points since 2015, Ryan has averaged 21 FanDuel points, as opposed to 17.9 in all others. Freeman has averaged 19.2 in shootouts during that span, as opposed to 16.1 in other games.

With Atlanta boasting the fifth-highest implied team total on the slate, Ryan, Freeman, and Jones are all in play.