Week 3 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

Green Bay Packers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Over/Under: 44.50
Packers Implied Team Total: 26.50
Bengals Implied Team Total: 18.00

This game isn't likely to be near the top in total points, but could be a classic Green Bay Packers smash at Lambeau as they take on a hapless 0-2 Cincinnati Bengals squad. If you think this will go over its 44.5-point over/under (fifth-highest on the slate), there is one intriguing way to bring it back on the Cincy side of the ball for a game stack.

Ty Montgomery, RB, Green Bay Packers

FanDuel Price: $7,200

Ty Montgomery has been the definition of a workhorse thus far for the Pack.

He leads all backs in total snaps and his 88% snap rate would be higher than any back not named Le'Veon Bell in 2016. He's handled 88% of the running back carries and has caught 10 passes for 114 yards and a score, while already converting two rushing touchdowns from within the 10-yard line, which ranks third in the league. He legitimately checks all of the boxes for a daily fantasy running back play.

Despite his usage and the highest FanDuel point average of any running back that isn't Kareem "The Dream" Hunt, Montgomery is still priced conservatively, coming into this slate as just the seventh-most expensive back.

As if that wasn't enough, Montgomery gets another plus-matchup this week against Cincinnati. The Bengals have been beaten so thoroughly through the first two games that opponents have run 77 times against them, allowing opposing backfields to combine for 256 rushing yards. They were also one of the worst teams at covering opposing backs in the passing game in 2016, allowing the second-most targets and fifth-most catches to opposing backs, which is great news for the converted receiver.

The fact that Green Bay is playing as 8.5-point favorites and have the third-highest implied team total on the board is just added security for Montgomery, who again is shaping up to be a cash game lock this week.

A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

FanDuel Price: $7,500

A.J. Green's salary has dropped $900 since Week 1 due to some horrific play from Andy Dalton, but his workload has remained consistent, with a 27.3% target market share thus far. While his volume of targets is certainly intriguing, there's a huge difference between the type of downfield targets he sees versus your traditional target monster, such as DeAndre Hopkins ($7,500) or Jarvis Landry ($6,800).

And that is what makes Green so intriguing this week.

Through 10 healthy games last season, only three players had more air yards than Green, who also carried a healthy aDOT of 12.4 yards. While Cincy's offensive line struggles and Dalton's ineffectiveness have held him back some this season, he still ranks seventh in air yards and has an aDOT of 11.8. Green led the league in gains of 40-plus yards last season (six) despite playing just 10 games. There are very few receivers who have the ability to take the top off the defense like him.

Why is this so important? Well, for starters, with such a low implied team total, Green will likely have to make some big plays to reach value. But the main reason we're focusing on it is because no defense was worse about giving up big plays to receivers than Green Bay last season. In addition to allowing the most touchdowns to receivers, the Packers (who did very little to improve their secondary) allowed the league's most catches that traveled at least 20 air yards.

If loading up on Packers, pairing Green with them makes a lot of sense. He is likely the only way that this game remains competitive enough to force the issue for Green Bay, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him haul in a few big catches against a suspect secondary. At his discounted price tag, Green is an elite tournament play.

Others to Consider

Aaron Rodgers ($9,300) is most certainly in play, as he has posted some ridiculous numbers at Lambeau in his career. In 14 home games the Packers have won by at least eight points since 2014, Rodgers has averaged 270 passing yards and 2.9 touchdowns, good for a crisp 24.3-FanDuel-point average. Our projections have him as the top-scoring quarterback on the slate.

Be sure to keep a close eye on the status of Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb as we get closer to Sunday. If either were forced to miss action, Davante Adams and Martellus Bennett would become strong plays, while Rodgers' projections would take a slight hit.