Fantasy Football Week 3 Market Share Report: Joe Mixon Emerges
Receiving Market Shares
1. Marqise Lee Is Getting Intriguing Usage
Allen Robinson couldn't thrive last year in the Jacksonville Jaguars' offense, so you know we can't get too excited about passing-game options within it. But Marqise Lee is at least testing that notion.
Lee led the team with seven targets in Week 2, his second consecutive game at the top of the totem pole. That ups his season-long market share to 27.7% even when you include the opener.
A good chunk of these looks are of the high-leverage variety, as well. Lee had three targets at least 16 yards downfield each of the first two weeks, and he added another in Week 3. He has 7 of the team's 14 deep targets so far, and there's plenty of value in that.
We'll never be able to have full faith in Lee because the team wants to run the football and his quarterback has had a rough few seasons. But if we are ever inclined to target the Jaguars' passing offense -- which could be the case this week against the New York Jets -- Lee should be the first guy on our checklist. He's $6,200 in Week 4, meaning now might not be a bad time to invest.
2. Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen Make Quarterbacks Better
Based on what happened in Week 2, it was likely good process to avoid the Minnesota Vikings this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But, whew, doggies, did they make the results painful.
Stefon Diggs went off for 173 yards and 2 touchdowns on 11 targets, and Adam Thielen finished second with 8 targets. They've also soaked up 21 of the team's 28 deep targets, and they have done hefty damage in those looks.
#Vikings quarterbacks when targeting either Diggs or Thielen 16+ yards downfield this year: 17-of-21, 478 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs.
— Jim Sannes (@JimSannes) September 24, 2017
Mind you, that's while catching balls from Case Keenum and Sam Bradford. Diggs and Thielen might just be good at football.
Part of the success likely stems from the fact that the Buccaneers had a laundry list of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, making it all a bit harder to believe. But it's also likely not a coincidence that 2016 was Bradford's first year as a top-15 passer, according to numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP). The Vikings don't face another great secondary until Week 7, meaning Diggs and Thielen could continue to eat.
They're talented receivers who see the lion's share of the team's overall targets along with almost all of their deep targets. There's tons of fantasy value in that, and even after a rough outing in Week 2, it may mean we can trust them even while Bradford remains on the sidelines.
3. Terrelle Pryor's Workload Is Frustrating
Back in Week 1, things were looking fine and dandy for Terrelle Pryor on his new team. He led Washington with 11 targets, and 3 of them were at least 16 yards downfield. When you tie that to Kirk Cousins, a guy who has been efficient each of the past two seasons, it's something we should covet in fantasy.
Since then, though, Pryor has just eight total targets, and one of those games came in the absence of Jordan Reed. It's time to worry here.
It would have been easy to write off the first four-target game because it was in a tough matchup with the Los Angeles Rams. But in Week 3, Cousins threw for 365 yards, and Pryor had just 19 of them. Instead, Chris Thompson led the team with seven targets, followed by Jamison Crowder with six and Vernon Davis with five. Pryor played 83.8% of the snaps, but he did very little with it.
It could be that Pryor is just having trouble adjusting to his new team, in which case progression would be possible in the future. But we can't keep plugging him into our DFS lineups based on a possibility, and we should not be buying low on him in season-long leagues. Until Pryor's usage starts to creep back up, we should be lowering the way we think of him as a fantasy asset.