Fantasy Football Week 3 Market Share Report: Joe Mixon Emerges
Red-Zone Market Shares
1. Devonta Freeman's Upside Is Massive and Growing
The baseline assumption entering the year should have been that the Atlanta Falcons would regress offensively from 2016. That's just how things go when you put up historically-efficient numbers. But through three games, they've already hit the 30-point mark twice, and only one of those games was at home.
Devonta Freeman seems to be the main benefactor.
When you operate efficiently, you're able to generate more red-zone opportunities for your players. Thus, if a certain player has heavily involvement in those red-zone trips, he's going to carry massive value in fantasy. Freeman is currently second in overall red-zone market share at 47.62%, trailing just Todd Gurley. Inside the 10-yard line, Freeman's market share is 46.15%, and he has 6 of 10 opportunities inside the five. With the number of points they're scoring, that's insane.
On top of that, Freeman is just getting more overall work recently, separating himself from Tevin Coleman.
| Total Opportunities | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 14 | 21 | 24 |
| Tevin Coleman | 14 | 8 | 11 |
This is giving a boost to Freeman's floor, and the red-zone usage is making his ceiling massive. He's a guy you'll want to target liberally when the Falcons are projected to score a lot of points in a given week.
2. The 49ers Run Through Carlos Hyde
There are plenty of things to love about Carlos Hyde's usage through three weeks, and we'll touch on some of them later. First and foremost, though, you have to dig the opportunities he's getting in close.
Carlos Hyde had 8 carries from inside the 10 in Week 3. Only Todd Gurley (9), Hyde (9), and Leonard Fournette (8) have that many all season.
— Brandon Gdula (@gdula13) September 25, 2017
The San Francisco 49ers may not get in the red zone often, but when they do, you know where the ball's going.
Beyond just Week 3, the 49ers have run 17 total plays inside the 10-yard line. Nine of them have been runs for Hyde, and he had a target in there, too. That's a 58.82% total opportunity market share inside the 10-yard line. This means we need to have Hyde on our radar whenever the 49ers are projected to put up points, as rare as that may be.
On top of that, Hyde's floor has been rapidly ascending. He has played 77.3% of the team's snaps this year, and he has at least four targets in each game. Even when the 49ers fall behind, it seems like Hyde's going to be involved in the offense. His situation isn't great, but everything about Hyde's usage says he's a steady asset to use in DFS and season-long.
