Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 4

Start Chris Carson as a Heavy Favorite

The Seattle Seahawks are the largest favorites on the board this weekend. They're favored by 13 points at home on Sunday Night Football against the Indianapolis Colts. Since Pete Carroll took over the coaching duties in 2010, the Seahawks have rushed more in games where they were favored. We all remember watching Marshawn Lynch feast on tired defenses in the fourth quarter.

Using that same logic, Chris Carson makes for a good play. It should go without saying, but Carson is not as talented as Lynch in his heyday, but he has impressed coaches enough to earn the workhorse role over Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls.

Since 2010, the Seahawks have averaged 29.39 rushing attempts per game, according to the Rotoviz Team Splits App. If we look at the Seahawks when they were favored, they averaged 31.09 carries per game. That is only slightly better, but the attempts increase with the point spread. When favored by 10 or more points, the attempts rise to 32.19.

When the Seahawks were favored by 13 or more, the attempts went even higher -- up to 35.33 per game. Of course, I don't see Carson reaching 30-plus carries on Sunday night, but he should get plenty of opportunities.

On FanDuel, Carson is priced at $6,600, which ranks 15th among running backs. He has yet to display top-five upside at the running back position but makes for a solid cash-game play.