Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 4

Start Jay Cutler as an Underdog

If you wake up early enough on Sunday, you might get to see Jay Cutler light it up in London.

The Miami Dolphins are 3.0-point underdogs against the New Orleans Saints. Betting on Cutler to cover the spread has been a lost cause over the years. According to Walter Football, Jay Cutler is 44-75 against the spread (if you exclude Monday Night Football).

So why do we like Cutler?

Since the beginning of 2014, Cutler has averaged 20.47 fantasy points per game as an underdog. That is more than 4 points more than he has produced when favored.

The Saints also present a very friendly matchup, which was covered earlier this week by our Jason Schandl.

Another favorable trend is the high total of 49.5 points. Since 2014, when Cutler has played in games with a total of 49.5 points or higher, he has averaged 22.22 fantasy points per game. Even if we drop the total down to 47 points, he still averaged 21.93 points per game. And so far in 2017, all three games involving the Saints eclipsed the implied total.

Cutler is priced at $7,300, 19th at the quarterback position. I'd be willing to pay down at the quarterback position this week with options like Taylor and Cutler.