5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 4
Los Angeles Rams' Passing Offense
If you had to guess which player currently leads the league in Passing NEP per drop back, what would you say? Tom Brady has dismembered the souls of opponents the past two games. Drew Brees put on a clinic last week in Carolina. And, of course, there's the reigning MVP, Matt Ryan.
Nah. It's not any of them. It's Jared Goff, and it's about time we give him the respect he deserves.
It's not even a slim margin for Goff in this metric, either. He's averaging 0.48 Passing NEP per drop back, and Brady is next up at 0.38. Brees is the only other player sitting higher than 0.25 at 0.30. Goff has been simply dominant this year.
The obvious counterpoint to all of this would be that Goff has faced a soft schedule, and that's fully true. But it's important to remember that numberFire's team metrics account for that, and the Rams have still been the league's best passing offense, per our numbers, by a healthy margin. Goff is going to slide back when the tougher opponents come from Week 5 on, but we're not there yet.
The Cowboys enter this game ranked 18th against the pass, according to these metrics. That's just a few spots above the Indianapolis Colts' defense that Goff punched in the throat in Week 1. And even that ranking for the Cowboys may be a bit generous.
They've been able to largely get by so far by generating a big rush on the passer. They're seventh in Defensive Sack NEP per drop back, so they're a force there. But that's taken into account in their 18th-place overall ranking against the pass, meaning that quarterbacks have generally done well when they have gotten the pass off. The Rams will provide a solid test of the Cowboys' abilities there.
Led by free-agent acquisition Andrew Whitworth, the Rams are sixth in Sack NEP per drop back on the offensive side of the ball. They were 31st in this metric last year. They're finally giving Goff time to operate, and he's taking full advantage.
Vegas seems to be recognizing all of this. The Cowboys opened as eight-point favorites, according to Sharp Football, with an over/under of 46. They're now favored by just six with the over/under at 47.5, meaning the Rams' implied team total has risen to 20.75 from 19. That's a pretty major shift in a short span.
You likely don't want to go with a full game stack here because the Cowboys will grind the clock when they're ahead, and that pushes this to be an area we should look only for tournament lineups. But guys like Goff don't figure to carry hefty ownership, making him interesting for $7,200 on FanDuel.
The question becomes with whom you would stack him. That's not an easy task on a team with their target distribution.
| In 2017 | Overall Target Share | Deep Target Share | Red-Zone Target Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 16.67% | 7.14% | 18.18% |
| Robert Woods | 19.05% | 42.86% | 9.09% |
| Cooper Kupp | 16.67% | 21.43% | 27.27% |
| Todd Gurley | 20.24% | 0.00% | 27.27% |
To further muddy the waters, Sammy Watkins is still not fully recovered from a concussion he suffered last Thursday.
Sammy Watkins and Tavon Austin were both limited at #Rams practice today. Cornerback Kayvon Webster was a full participant.
— Ryan Kartje (@Ryan_Kartje) September 27, 2017
Watkins is the guy with the most upside, so if he plays, you'll want to at least give him a sniff. But Robert Woods may be interesting no matter what.
Not only has Woods outsnapped Cooper Kupp for the season, 82.2% to 59.4%, but he has gotten a pair of deep targets in each of the first three games. Carson Palmer completed half of his deep attempts against this defense on Monday night, meaning Woods could be a fun value option at $5,500.
