NFL Award Predictions: First-Quarter Edition

Most Valuable Player

Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Since his poor opening game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Tom Brady has looked as sharp as ever, and he is on pace for another monster statistical season.

Through four games, Brady leads the league with 1,399 passing yards, 10 touchdowns and no interceptions. Additionally, since completing only 44% of his passes against Kansas City, he has averaged a 73% completion rate in the last three games.

Extrapolating these numbers over 16 games gets you a staggering 5,596 yards, 40 touchdowns and no interceptions.

For reference, in his 2016 MVP campaign, Matt Ryan had 4,944 yards, 38 touchdowns and 7 picks.

Now, we can reasonably assume Brady will throw a few interceptions over the course of the next 12 games, but these numbers don't lie. Brady is having an MVP-caliber season, carrying a New England Patriots team that is struggling mightily on defense.

Our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric confirms this, as well. NEP is a metric we use to track the efficiency of both teams and players. NEP gives us the context to know that a three-yard completion on 3rd and 2 is infinitely more valuable than that same three-yard completion on 3rd and 4. You can read more about NEP in our glossary.

Ryan posting a sparkling Passing NEP per drop back clip of 0.37 in 2016, and Brady is currently sitting at 0.38.

Perhaps the biggest hurdle for Brady could wind up being one that has typically never been an issue -- wins. With yesterday's loss, the Patriots sit at 2-2, and their defense looks porous. As is the case with most of these awards (but even more so with MVP), the team's overall success weighs heavily into the end-of-season voting. If the Patriots limp into the playoffs or have trouble winning what most consider a weak AFC East, the raw statistics may not be enough to land Brady the award.

However, the 2017 Most Valuable Player through the first four games of the season is Tom Brady. And if the defense keeps playing the way it is and the Pats have another double-digit-win season anyway, Brady will certainly be among the favorites to win the award at the end of the season.

Dark Horse: Alex Smith

Don't look now, but the Chiefs are the only undefeated team in the league (heading into tonight's game), and Alex Smith is playing lights out. He's captaining one of the most efficient offenses in the league, and he is averaging a league-high 9.2 yards per pass. That is unheard of for Alex Smith. He has only averaged more than 7.5 yards per pass for a season once in his career.

If the Chiefs continue to win games and Smith keeps playing like one of the league's best quarterbacks, it most definitely vaults the veteran passer squarely into the MVP conversation.