Fantasy Football Week 4 Market Share Report: Here Comes Dez Bryant
Receiving Market Shares
1. Brace Yourselves for Dez Bryant
Welcome to Dez Bryant Week 2017, everyone. The top finna blow off this volcano in a hurry.
Bryant has had pedestrian fantasy outputs to start the year, topping out at 15.4 points, based on FanDuel's scoring rules. But those four games were all against some of the best cornerbacks in the league, and the dude was still getting monster usage.
Through four weeks, Bryant has 28.06% of the Dallas Cowboys' overall targets, 52.17% of their targets 16-plus yards downfield, and 41.18% of their red-zone targets. He's getting tons of looks, and most of them are of the high-leverage variety. Swoon.
Next up for Bryant is a Green Bay Packers defense that has allowed both A.J. Green and Julio Jones to top 100 yards against them within the past three weeks. Those are two great receivers, but Bryant's getting similar -- if not better -- usage to them. He could go completely berserk, meaning now's the time to buy him both in season-long and DFS.
2. Rishard Matthews Continues to Pop
We've come up with a lot of reasons for why Rishard Matthews' market share should eventually come down. It never seems to adhere to our pessimism, though.
Over the second half of last year, Matthews commanded 28.69% of the Tennessee Titans' targets, easily leading the team. Then they brought in both Corey Davis and Eric Decker, drawing into question whether Matthews could maintain his involvement. So far, so good.
Matthews enters Week 5 with 27.83% of the team's total targets. He has either led the team in targets or been tied for the top mark each of the past three games. He has added in 29.63% of their deep targets and has 4 of 9 red-zone targets, giving him a decent amount of upside.
You could counter by saying that this all coincides with Davis' injury, and you're not wrong. Davis led the team in targets while healthy in Week 1. But Davis' return doesn't appear imminent.
Mularkey said @TheCDavis84 is doing better but probably won't play this week @Titans
— Jim Wyatt (@jwyattsports) October 2, 2017
Until he gets back, Matthews is a high-usage wide receiver in an efficient offense. And he gets a revenge game against his former team in the Miami Dolphins this week. As long as Marcus Mariota is able to play -- which seems fully possible -- Matthews is a tremendous option for DFS and season-long.
3. Jaron Brown May Be Here to Stay
Week 4 saw the return of John Brown to the Arizona Cardinals, his first game since the season opener. That could have spelled the end of Jaron Brown with another receiver in the fold. But Jaron had other ideas.
In Smokey's return, Jaron led the team's receivers with 12 targets, turning them into 8 receptions for 105 yards. He now has double-digit targets in two of his past three games, sitting at a 21.97% target market share. It was 23.53% in Week 4 with John Brown back.
The best part about those targets for Jaron is a handful of them were high-leverage looks. He has 13 targets 16-plus yards downfield this year, accounting for 39.39% of the team's deep looks. He has added five red-zone chances the past three games, so Brown's getting the type of usage we should covet.
With all of the injuries to the Cardinals' offensive line and in the backfield, it seems unlikely that they'll suddenly develop a ground game. That means they're going to keep chucking it, but even then, it's hard to envision this offense supporting three receivers in fantasy. But Brown may be able to survive the improving health.
Jaron Brown and Larry Fitzgerald played the most snaps at receiver in Week 4, and Jaron easily led both Fitzgerald and John Brown in targets. Instead of Jaron Brown falling by the wayside, it may be one of the others, forcing us to continue monitoring this receiver corps going forward.