NFL Power Rankings: Week 5
Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th
One of the newest members of the NFL’s middle class is Houston, which climbed from 25th to 13th.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Baltimore Ravens | -1.37 | 2-2 | 34.60% | 27 | 11 | 1 |
| 21 | Cincinnati Bengals | -1.11 | 1-3 | 15.90% | 29 | 12 | 5 |
| 20 | New York Giants | -0.65 | 0-4 | 2.10% | 23 | 15 | 4 |
| 19 | Los Angeles Chargers | -0.27 | 0-4 | 2.80% | 10 | 24 | 2 |
| 18 | Seattle Seahawks | 0.61 | 2-2 | 53.50% | 16 | 18 | -5 |
| 17 | Carolina Panthers | 1.11 | 3-1 | 38.00% | 22 | 7 | -5 |
| 16 | New Orleans Saints | 1.27 | 2-2 | 26.10% | 12 | 20 | 0 |
| 15 | Detroit Lions | 1.71 | 3-1 | 56.00% | 25 | 2 | -1 |
| 14 | Dallas Cowboys | 1.87 | 2-2 | 27.30% | 9 | 25 | 1 |
| 13 | Houston Texans | 1.99 | 2-2 | 52.90% | 24 | 6 | 12 |
Deshaun Watson certainly deserves some of the credit for the move, as he starred in the Texans’ big 57-14 win over Tennessee on Sunday. The rookie threw for 283 yards and 4 touchdowns on 34 attempts and added a rushing touchdown. Houston moved from 29th in opponent-adjusted NEP on offense to 25th. It’s still not a great offense, but if Watson can keep this up, that ranking will continue to improve.
Houston’s defense also played a big role in the improvement, moving from 13th to 6th after holding Tennessee to 4.8 yards per play. The Titans came into the week ranked 4th in NEP on offense.
Carolina and Seattle took a hit despite wins on Sunday. In the Panthers’ case, their improvement in terms of offensive ranking was offset by a move in the other direction on defense, while the Seahawks needed a second half surge to put away the lowly Colts.
Given what we knew at the start of the season, Detroit being imbalanced and in the middle of the pack would hardly have been a surprise. What is totally surprising is that this imbalance favors their defense, as the Lions rank 2nd on D, but 25th on offense.
At the start of the season, we projected them to rank 8th on offense and 31st on defense.
This performance is propped up by an unsustainably high turnover rate, as the Lions lead the league in takeaways per drive. They’ve intercepted nearly five percent of opponents passes while recovering 2/3rds of their fumbles. Neither mark is sustainable, and Detroit has been less stout in terms of curbing opponents’ gains -- they are tied for 19th in yards allowed per play (5.4).
This is still an improvement from last year when they allowed 5.9, but playoff contention in Detroit will presumably hinge on whether or not the offense can get on track.
