Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 6

Start the Broncos' Defense Because of Line Movement

I try very hard to recommend plays that could be a value to you when building DFS lineups. I rarely ever recommend the top-priced option, but the Denver D/ST is just too good to pass up.

The Denver Broncos are 11.5-point home favorites on Sunday Night Football against the 0-5 New York Giants. The general public is well aware of the Giants' woes so Denver may be a popular pick. However, because of some favorable Vegas trends such as line movement, they should not be faded.

In my aforementioned line movement article, we looked at how defenses performed when the totals landed in a certain range. When the total was between 39 and 42 points in 2015, the defenses involved averaged 8.06 fantasy points per game. The total in Sunday night's game is only 38.5 points. We don't even have enough line movement data for that low of a total.

It's also worth noting that this game opened with the total at 40.5 points but it fell to 38.5 points. In 2015, when a total dropped two points or more, those defenses averaged 8.3 fantasy points per game.

The Broncos' defense will cost you $5,400 on FanDuel, but I would find a way to get them into your lineups in all formats.