5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 7

Atlanta Falcons' Passing Offense

Outside of Mohamed Sanu's hamstring, there aren't really injuries to monitor here. It's just a good, ol'-fashioned shootout in the making.

On this week's main slate, there's only one game with an over/under above 48. That's this one between the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots, sitting all the way up at 55, a full touchdown above any other game we've got. This means we're going to want some exposure on both sides, and we'll get to the Patriots in just a second. But this could be a solid time for the Falcons to exact revenge for last year's Super Bowl and get their offense back on track.

That thought stems from the fact that the Patriots' defense has been fully wretched this year, something you've likely noticed by this point. They're ranked 28th against the pass, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, and the raw numbers may be even worse.

Every single quarterback who has faced them has thrown for at least 300 yards, including Josh McCown, who went for 354 last week. The only guy not to rack up multiple scores was Jameis Winston, and Winston was dealing with some wind and still had solid peripheral numbers. This has been a constant issue all season.

Overall, quarterbacks facing the Patriots have averged 0.31 Passing NEP per drop back (which shows the expected points added while deducting for events such as incompletions, interceptions, and sacks) with a 50.40% Success Rate (the percentage of drop backs that result in an increase in expected points for the drive). Here's how those numbers compare to the league leaders in those categories this year.

The guys going up against the Patriots have posted numbers on par with the top passers in the league. And who would you guess leads all passers in Success Rate? It's none other than this week's foe, Matt Ryan.

That's probably a bit surprising to see Ryan at the top of the leaderboards because his fantasy output has been entirely mediocre. He hasn't eclipsed 18 points on FanDuel yet, and the team just threw up a massive dud at home off a bye against the Miami Dolphins. There are a few factors that are masking Ryan's efficiency, though.

First, the team -- for whatever reason -- has had trouble converting long drives into points. Because quarterback scoring is so dependent on touchdowns, this can tank a guy's fantasy value in a hurry, but they should have some solid progression coming soon.

No team in football is averaging more yards per drive than the Falcons. That would seem to be a good thing.

Additionally, the offense has struggled a bit with sacks. They are a lower-half team in terms of expected points lost due to sacks on a per-drop back basis, and that has the ability to kill a drive in a hurry.

They get a bit of reprieve there this week, though, in facing New England. The Patriots are 27th on the defensive side of that metric, a continuation of one of their weaknesses from last year. Additionally, the Falcons played almost three entire games without right tackle Ryan Schraeder. Schraeder returned last week and played every offensive snap, so things should be sorted out up front.

This all aligns to make Ryan a guy we want to buy before the fantasy points catch up to his efficiency. It's the pass catchers who present us with the biggest conundrum.

There are roughly 15 conflicting narratives that all come to a head with Julio Jones. The first one is the narrative around how well the Patriots limit the opponent's top option. Jones finished with just four targets against them in the Super Bowl, and they have kept high-end guys like DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, and Travis Kelce from going off against them this year. That's a ding to Jones on top of his lack of high-end production.

But we also can't ignore the squeaky-wheel narrative, which is working a bit in the opposite direction.

Head coach Dan Quinn also said on Wednesday that Jones would get "a bunch of targets going his way this week." So there's reason to believe Jones could rebound despite the Patriots' defense. How are we supposed to handle him?

Because Jones costs $8,800 on FanDuel, if he drops a dud, he could kill an otherwise-Gucci lineup. This means we do need to make sure we limit our exposure to him, regardless of how juicy the matchup may be.

But at the same time, we know what Jones can do when he goes off. He has topped 90 receiving yards in two of his four healthy games this year, and he had 130-plus yards three times in 2016. There aren't many wide receivers in the league with that upside. So while we can't go all-in on Jones because of the Patriots' likely emphasis on stopping him, we absolutely need to have him in a good number of our lineups.

As for the other options, things got a bit muddier on Wednesday with Sanu -- who missed the team's Week 6 game -- returning to practice. His availability would kill any appeal in Taylor Gabriel and lower expectations for Austin Hooper. But Sanu, himself, is in play if he can give it a go.

As noted by ESPN's Mike Clay, the Patriots have allowed the most points to players in the slot of any team this year, and that's where Sanu lines up on 61% of his routes. Sanu's price has slid to $5,500, and he had a 23.08% target market share prior to his injury. That's enough to justify tossing him out there should he get in a full practice by Friday.