5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 7

Chicago Bears' Rushing Offense

And here is where all of those injuries mentioned at the top come into play. Let's quickly run through a few of the key guys to track this week.

The big one is Brandon Williams. If he's forced to sit yet again for the Baltimore Ravens, it would vault Jerick McKinnon into a sweet, sweet tier of deliciousness. That said, Williams returned to practice Wednesday, meaning the odds of getting this matchup seem slim.

Jay Ajayi is at home to face the New York Jets, a decent situation for a guy with such heavy volume. However, he may be without center Mike Pouncey, who sustained a concussion in Week 6 and missed practice on Wednesday. If Pouncey's able to go, then Ajayi's superbly interesting, but this one is also looking a bit grim.

The third one is -- unfortunately -- looking like it will play out. That's the effect not having Luke Kuechly would have on the Carolina Panthers' defense. Kuechly suffered another concussion in Week 6, forcing him to miss practice on Wednesday. It's still possible that Kuechly is able to clear protocol by Sunday, but that seems to be a bit of a stretch at the moment. That disappointing development would open a hole of opportunity for Jordan Howard and the Chicago Bears' rushing offense.

Because this would hypothetically be Kuechly's first missed game of the season, we don't know what this Panthers defense will look like without him. But we did see this scenario for the final six games of last year, and it wasn't pretty for Carolina.

Below is a comparison of how their rush defense performed against running backs in the 10 games with Kuechly versus the six without. Rushing NEP per carry is the expected points added on a per-carry basis, and Success Rate is the percentage of carries that increased the team's expected points for the drive.

They went from being a shut-down unit to one that allowed back-breaking chunk plays. Thomas Rawls rushed for 106 yards on just 15 carries against them while Kuechly was out, and Tevin Coleman had 90 yards on 9 carries. Kuechly's absence made all the difference in the world to that unit, and we could learn plenty about the 2017 version on Sunday.

What furthers the incentive to potentially target Howard is that the Panthers' defense hasn't been truly dominant this year even with Kuechly in the fold. Although they haven't allowed any big individual days, they're 10th overall against the rush, and they have allowed the fourth-highest Success Rate to opposing running backs. If you take Kuechly away from that, things could get ugly in a hurry.

If he is able to go on Sunday, then we should likely lower expectations on Howard a good chunk. But with the way things are trending right now, Howard could bring you some serious value for $6,800.

Howard's coming off a game in which he carried a ball a whopping 36 times. It was his fourth game in a row with at least 18 carries, so if the Bears can keep it close, you know the volume will be there.

There are a couple of other things working in Howard's favor, too. Over the past three weeks, the Bears have finally had their full starting offensive line healthy. Kyle Long missed the first two games, and Josh Sitton missed the third. They've had three games as a full unit now, and Howard seems to be the guy benefiting.

Additionally, Vegas seems to think the Bears can keep this one close. Even though 75% of public bets have been on the Panthers, the line has actually been shifting toward the Bears. They opened as four-point underdogs, but the Panthers are now favored by three. With smart money on the Bears, we should feel a bit safer in plugging Howard into our lineups.

There's always a risk about using a running back tied to a rookie quarterback, especially when that guy isn't necessarily a three-down back. Howard is far from being a lock even if Kuechly misses. But with his ownership likely being low and his price being fully reasonable, now's not a bad time to buy Howard if the Panthers are without their star defender.