Week 8 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Over/Under: 48.0
Patriots Implied Team Total: 27.75
Chargers Implied Team Total: 20.25
This matchup between the New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Chargers looks considerably more interesting than it did four weeks ago. Both teams are finding their respective grooves with three-game winning streaks after shaky starts to the season, and all of a sudden this is a meaningful AFC affair. The Patriots are a 7-point home favorite, but it's proven to be a mistake to overlook this hungry Chargers team. With the 2nd-highest over/under of the week, there should be plenty of scoring in this one.
Melvin Gordon, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
FanDuel Price: $7,900
The Patriots defense performed admirably against the Atlanta Falcons passing game last week, but they still surrendered 120 rushing yards to Devonta Freeman ($8,000) and company. It's clear that the Pats remain vulnerable against the run, as they are allowing 0.02 Adjusted Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play, tied for 9th-worst in the league. (For more information on NEP, check out our glossary.) To top it all off, they are permitting the 5th-most (tied) FanDuel points per game (23.8) to opposing running backs.
All of this is a fancy way of saying that Melvin Gordon is poised to have a big day. Without question, Gordon's 2017 has been up-and-down, but a matchup with the defending Super Bowl champions is particularly enticing. Don't let his status as an underdog frighten you off. Even if the Chargers fall behind early, he will remain an integral part of the passing attack, as he's averaged 6.14 targets per contest this season. Yes, Austin Ekeler ($4,500) is emerging as a receiving threat, but Gordon will still maintain plenty of passing game volume.
With opportunities to make an impact as both a runner and a receiver, Gordon is projected to be the 5th-highest scoring tailback on the slate with 18.0 FanDuel points. With such an slick matchup on the docket, he's well worth the investment.
Hunter Henry, TE, Los Angeles Chargers
FanDuel Price: $5,500
It took longer than most expected, but Hunter Henry has finally overtaken Antonio Gates ($4,600) as the Chargers' primary tight end. After seeing his snap share steadily increase in recent weeks, the second-year man took control last weekend, playing 47 of 58 offensive snaps against the Denver Broncos and posting 4 catches for 73 yards against the imposing "No Fly Zone."
First four weeks, Antonio Gates out-snapped Hunter Henry 146-131. LAC went 0-4.
Last three weeks, Henry out-snapped Gates 160-96. LAC 3-0.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 23, 2017
Certainly, the team's success is attributable to much more than Henry's increased workload, but it's clear the former Arkansas standout has emerged, quietly racking up 12 catches, 205 receiving yards, and a touchdown over his last three contests.
Even after limiting Austin Hooper ($4,900) to a single catch last weekend, the Patriots are still allowing an average of 12.2 FanDuel points per game to opposing tight ends. Henry can be started for the cost of the TE11 this week, tremendous value for a player with his upside in a premium matchup.
Others to Consider:
Philip Rivers ($7,500) could be a steal at QB16 cost, but he's had his fair share of highs and lows this season. Still, the Patriots have allowed 300-plus passing yards in all but one game this season and Rivers has an extremely talented supporting cast at his disposal. Pairing him with Henry could be the value stack of the week.
The narrative that Bill Belichick defenses always shut down opposing team's top pass-catchers can be debated ad nauseum, but what does that mean for Keenan Allen ($7,800)? After all, the Pats defense permitted 9 catches, 99 yards, and a touchdown to Julio Jones ($8,700) last week. In spite of the generous matchup, Allen has seen fewer than 10 targets in consecutive games, has been hampered by a shoulder injury, and has only cleared 70 yards in two of seven contests this season. If you have him in a seasonal league, you're starting him, but at WR8 cost, he's a risky proposition in daily formats.
The Chargers have allowed 0.02 Adjusted Passing NEP per play (14th in the league), so this is neither a plus matchup or a shy-away affair for Tom Brady ($9,400). Brady attempted a season-low 29 passes last week as the Patriots' running backs rushed for 157 yards, and more of the same could be in order in Week 8. After all, the Chargers are allowing 0.09 Adjusted Rushing NEP per play (3rd-worst), and the Pats are 7.5-point home favorites. Brady is Brady, but another run-heavy game script could be in order. Considering his QB1 cost, better value can be found elsewhere. Which brings us to our next contest...