5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 8

Los Angeles Chargers' Passing Offense

The past three weeks, it really has seemed like the New England Patriots have knocked off the rust. They've won all three games, and the opposing teams have combined to score fewer points than the Patriots allowed in the season opener alone. It must be time to stop targeting them with opposing offenses, right?

Not so fast there, Skippy. It's absolutely true that the defense has been better in these three games, but we're not to the point where we need to avoid them yet.

Let's just zero in on these past three games of data, ignoring the Patriots' immense early-season struggles. What do the numbers tell us about this up-tick?

In those three games, opposing quarterbacks have averaged 0.11 Passing NEP per drop back (including deductions for expected points lost on sacks, incompletions, and interceptions) with a 53.38% Success Rate. Here's how that compares to the league-average passer this year.

Even when we cherry-pick the three best defensive efforts the team has had this year, opposing quarterbacks have still performed better than the league average. They've topped that average by a significant margin in Success Rate. Teams are moving the ball against the Patriots; they're just not converting that into points.

You can take this as meaning one of two things. First, you could assume that the defense is playing a bend-but-don't-break style, preventing big plays while allowing teams to chip away at their secondary. That's certainly possible. Option two, though, is that they've simply gotten lucky in keeping teams out of the end zone. If it winds up being option two, then we could be overlooking the Los Angeles Chargers this week just because of some mild improvements in a three-game sample.

The larger book on the Patriots says that they're the league's 26th-ranked pass defense, a below-average unit that will have to try to stop Philip Rivers, the eighth-ranked quarterback by Passing NEP per drop back. That would seem to be a bit of a mismatch. You can avoid targeting the Patriots based on the past three games if you'd like, but it really seems like the Chargers in a great spot for tournament exposure again.

Rivers got off to a rough start this year, throwing four touchdowns and four picks through the first three games. But since then, he has flipped that ratio to be eight touchdowns and one interception, including a two-touchdown day against the Denver Broncos' vaunted defense last week. He's almost the same price as the aforementioned Taylor and Dalton at $7,500, which should put a cap on his ownership. Rivers is a solid option at quarterback.

The two obvious stacking outlets here are Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry. Both present plenty of reasons for investment.

Allen has a delightful combo of floor and upside thanks to his target profile this year. He has 27.1% of the team's overall targets, 31.6% of their deep targets, and 28.1% of the targets in the red zone. That hasn't turned into fantasy delight yet this year, but you also have to keep in mind that he has had two matchups with the Broncos and another with the New York Giants. When you get that volume -- with that many high-leverage looks -- the fantasy points will follow. Allen's superbly intriguing at $7,800.

Henry's still close to the bargain bin at tight end for $5,500 even though his role has changed dramatically of late. He has played at least 75% of the snaps in each of the past three games while boasting 19.4% of the team's targets plus four deep targets and four red-zone targets. He doesn't have the same floor as someone like Zach Ertz, but Henry's a cheap option with upside who can allow you to pay up elsewhere. There's a whole lot to love in that.