5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Rushing Offense
Again, this game's over/under be chillin' in the clouds at 50.5. That allows us to get exposure to both sides, especially when both teams rank in the top 11 in situation-neutral pace, according to Football Outsiders. And while it may be scary to target a running back on a team that is a seven-point underdog, the Saints' defense almost necessitates it.
As you've likely noticed by now, this is not the Saints' pass defense to which we became accustomed the past few years. They enter Week 9 ranked 12th against the pass, according to numberFire's metrics. That puts them ahead of the Minnesota Vikings, a team we avoid almost no matter what with opposing quarterbacks. New Orleans is no longer a sieve in the secondary.
The rushing defense, though, is an entirely different matter. They rank dead last there, a serious deviation from 2016 when they finished 19th and were stout against the rush in the second half. And teams have been exploiting this discrepancy.
Despite winning each of their past two games and holding commanding leads, the Saints have still allowed both Aaron Jones and Jordan Howard to surpass 100 yards rushing against them. They've also allowed the sixth-most receptions to opposing backs, providing even a bit more cushion in case they do snag a lead. Given the gap between their metrics against the pass and the rush, it makes sense to attack this team on the ground, and we've seen things play out exactly as such recently.
That brings us to Doug Martin, the man in line to benefit from these issues next. With Charles Sims available, Martin could see a dip if the Bucs were to fall behind, but it's not a risk that has harmed him much yet this year.
In Martin's four games since returning from suspension, the Bucs are yet to get a win, meaning we've seen how they will use Martin while trailing. He has still managed to get volume in those scenarios.
Because Martin was still on a snap count his first game back, we're going to toss that one out the window. He has played 56.94% of the snaps over the past three games, and again, they lost every single one of those. His snap rate's acceptable for DFS even in negative game script.
It's the same story for his carry workload, too. Excluding Week 5, here's how often the Bucs have used Martin based on the score over the past three games. Martin's carry market share is the percentage of running back carries that he handles, and overall market share is the percentage of carries plus targets that he gets in the offense as a whole.
| Past 3 Weeks | Carry Market Share | Overall Market Share |
|---|---|---|
| Leading or Tied | 93.3% | 38.5% |
| Trailing | 86.4% | 29.3% |
Even when Tampa Bay has trailed, Martin has gotten almost all of the running back carries, and he's still a big part of the gameplan. For context, that 29.3% market share while trailing is nine percentage points higher than Kamara's overall market share the past three weeks. And this is only from the times that Tampa Bay has been playing from behind, the worst-case scenario for an early-down back.
This is assuming the nightmare scenario comes true, which is likely what we have to do given the spread and Martin's role. But game scripts are never a certainty in the NFL, meaning Tampa Bay could easily wind up holding a lead throughout this game. If that happens, the upsides of having Martin would be immense.
Is it risky to go with Martin here? Sure. Things could go south, especially with Jameis Winston still dealing with a shoulder injury. But Martin's cheap, in a great matchup, and receiving the type of volume we desire. For $6,700, that's enough to make him a tremendous play for tournaments.
