Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 9

Start Lamar Miller as a Favorite

Sports are really stupid sometimes. This feeling of dread washed over me when Odell Beckham, Aaron Rodgers, and other marquee players were injured earlier this season. That same dreadful feeling returned yesterday afternoon when the news came out that Deshaun Watson had torn his ACL in practice. Brutal.

But the show must go on. The Texans are still big favorites this weekend, holding a seven-point advantage over the Indianapolis Colts with an implied total of 26.5 points. That's a 5.5-point drop from Watson to Tom Savage.

DeAndre Hopkins is priced at $9,100 on FanDuel, the highest among wideouts. His teammate Will Fuller, who seemingly scored a touchdown every time he touched the ball with Watson, is priced sixth among wide receivers. They are avoids in any format at their prices.

However, running back Lamar Miller still presents good value in a game where he will likely be leaned on more than expected. There is also a lack of elite running backs since Le'Veon Bell and Ezekiel Elliott are out this weekend, so Miller makes for a solid play at running back. He has also performed slightly better when the Texans have been favored since he joined the team in 2016.

Per the Rotoviz Game Splits App, Miller has averaged about 2.5 more half-PPR points per game as a favorite.

In games where the Texans were favored by three or more, Miller's score ticked up to about 15.5 points per game. Before arriving in 2016, head coach Bill O'Brien leaned on the run more in games when they were favored.

Rushing attempts and yardage increased in games where the Texans were favored by six or more points.

Miller is priced at $7,500 on FanDuel, which ranks sixth among running backs. He is a safe cash game play with upside for tournament usage.