Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 9
Start the Rams' Defense Because of Line Movement
What is line movement? During the NFL season, bookmakers usually post a spread with a total as early as possible to begin taking bets. For Week 9, these lines were posted as early as Sunday night and have since been adjusted. They are adjusted in the following hours and days due to transactions, injuries, weather reports, large bets on one side -- any number of things.
The Los Angeles Rams are 3.5-point road favorites against the New York Giants. The Rams opened at 3.5-point favorites and have remained there throughout the week. However, the total in this game has dropped.
The game opened at a lower total of 43.5 points but has plunged two points to 42.0 at Pinnacle per Sportsbook Review.
Last year, I wrote about how line movement affects defensive performances, and when the total fell two points or more in 2015, the defenses involved averaged 8.30 fantasy points per game. Also, when the total was 39-42 points, the average D/ST score was 8.06 fantasy points per game.
The Los Angeles Rams D/ST is priced at $4,800 on FanDuel and rank seventh among defenses. The Giants' offense is putrid and the Rams are getting them off a bye week. The Rams are worth starting in all formats.
