Week 9 Fantasy Football Market Share Report: Assessing Kareem Hunt

Rushing Market Shares

1. Kareem Hunt's Role Is Becoming More Clear

Entering Week 9, there had been some writing on the wall that Kareem Hunt wasn't an every-down back. He had exceeded 75% of the snaps just once, and that included games where Charcandrick West either left early or didn't play due to injury. It just became way more obvious on Sunday.

In that one, Hunt had just nine carries and five targets, his fewest total opportunities of the year. And when those opportunities came without big plays, he wound up killing every DFS roster he was on. It was ugly.

The question here is what changed for Hunt? The answer may be nothing at all.

Hunt's limitations in negative game script this year haven't been readily apparent because the Kansas City Chiefs simply haven't trailed that often. They've run 87 plays while trailing by more than one score, which is a minuscule number. Hunt's overall market share in those 87 plays is 21.8%, which is not something we want to use in DFS, especially at such a high salary. If we had known the Chiefs would have lost that game by 11, we probably wouldn't have been on him.

So, in effect, Hunt's role didn't truly change. But this doesn't mean it's all sunshine and daisies from a DFS perspective.

The reason we're willing to pay $8,500 or more on FanDuel for guys like Le'Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, and Ezekiel Elliott is that you know they'll be on the field no matter what the game script may be. That's not the case for Hunt. He's going to bounce back and have big games when the Chiefs hold leads this year, but the floor when they don't get ahead is much lower for him than it would be for those other guys.

It means that if Hunt remains priced where he was last week ($9,000), he's hard to stomach. But if his price comes down, and the Chiefs are projected to be in positive game script, we'll be able to put him on our rosters once again.

2. Corey Clement Threatens Jay Ajayi's Outlook

Jay Ajayi balled out in his debut with the Philadelphia Eagles. Not only did he score his first touchdown of the year, but it came on a 46-yard burst where he leaped across the goal line. It was more than you could have expected given that he had been on the team for only a few days.

But he still got outshined by Corey Clement.

Clement scored three touchdowns -- two rushing and one receiving -- while leading the backfield in both carries and snaps. Those two things in a vacuum wouldn't be concerning for Ajayi because you'd expect his workload to increase the more time he has with the team. But Clement's effectiveness is noteworthy.

The Eagles have three running backs who have recorded at least 40 carries. Clement leads them in Success Rate, which is the percentage of carries that have increased the team's expected points for the drive, per numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric. Basically, he's doing his job well. And if he's doing that, then it's harder to take him off the field, which cuts into Ajayi's potential workload.

Because the Eagles just sent away a fourth-round pick to get Ajayi, they're likely going to increase his role after their Week 10 bye. But that doesn't necessarily mean Clement will leave the picture completely. And if Ajayi isn't controlling all of the carries while still struggling in the passing game, it's a serious blow to his DFS appeal. As such, for the time being, it's probably best to avoid heavy investment in this backfield until someone can separate from the pack.

3. Mark Ingram Remains Viable

Last week, we talked about how Mark Ingram could lose work to Alvin Kamara after Ingram lost a pair of fumbles in Week 8. That certainly seemed to happen Sunday as Kamara had a breakout performance with 152 yards and 2 touchdowns. It just doesn't mean we have to abandon ship on Ingram just yet.

It is fully true that Ingram's workload went down in Week 9 despite a grotesquely positive game script. But even with that being the case, he was still involved.

Here are Ingram's and Kamara's weekly market share numbers, referring to the percentage of the team's total opportunities (carries plus targets) that went their way.

Kamara's output was his highest of the season, and Ingram's was his lowest since the Adrian Peterson trade. This would make it seem like we need to buy Kamara and avoid Ingram. But it's not quite that simple.

Even with this being the case, Ingram still out-carried Kamara, 16-10, and out-snapped him, 36-26. The only true ding for Ingram is that he had just one target on the day after getting at least four in every game prior to that. When a 28.8% market share is tied to a quarterback as good as Drew Brees, it still holds value in fantasy football.

On top of that, Ingram's reduced role is already baked into his pricing. He's just $6,900 on FanDuel for Week 10. Not only is that $1,000 cheaper than he was in Week 9, but he's $100 below Kamara. He's priced right where he should be.

After his huge day on Sunday, ownership is going to gravitate toward Kamara going forward, and it probably should with their next game being on the road in what could be a neutral game script against the Buffalo Bills. But Kamara will likely never be a workhorse back, something that is still in Ingram's range of outcomes. While it's fine to keep on plugging in Kamara in scripts like the one he could see this weekend, the sharper play may be to go back to Ingram in a potential bounce-back spot.

4. Adrian Peterson Can Still Be a Trap

So. Apparently old man AD still has a little somethin' somethin' in the tank.

Peterson finished with 37 carries for 159 yards, his second time topping 130 rushing yards in his three games with the Arizona Cardinals. This would seem to be a match made in heaven.

It doesn't mean he's a locked-in stud for DFS, though.

Those two games for Peterson had one thing in common: the Cardinals got out to an early lead and were able to control the game flow throughout. This is the type of script that can lead to huge usage for a running back, and the Cardinals followed through by feeding him as much as he could handle.

What happened the one time they didn't get a lead? Peterson rushed 11 times for 21 yards. And that was with Andre Ellington inactive. Hard pass on that.

If the Cardinals were in position to hold a bunch of leads, then maybe this would be something we could expect Peterson to sustain. But with Drew Stanton at quarterback, it's hard to go into a game assuming a team is going to be in positive game script. This sets up for additional heartbreak down the line.

With this in mind, we need to handle Peterson with extreme care in the future. If the Cardinals are heavy underdogs, he's a guy we need to avoid at all costs. If they're in a projected neutral game script, he's a tournament option on the off chance that they snag a lead. And if they're (somehow) big favorites, we can plug him in for sure, though we'll always have to roll out reduced exposure just in case game script works against him.

5. We Need to Avoid the Buccaneers' Backfield

We usually try to keep it to three bullet points in this section, but there's a lot to cover this week, so we'll make this one short: avoid all Tampa Bay Buccaneers running backs.

Doug Martin was getting a ton of usage entering Week 9 with 16 or more opportunities in each of his first four games. Then, he struggled out of the gate on Sunday and got benched for Peyton Barber. Womp, womp.

As such, we should assume this is going to be either a committee or a hot-hand approach at back going forward. When you're playing as poorly as the Buccaneers are, there's little to no value in that. So, until Jameis Winston gets his shoulder healthy, or someone becomes a clear-cut lead back, we cannot and should not invest in this backfield.